1999 CFOD SEASON PREVIEW "Your mileage may vary" Mantle Division Preview: "Cry havoc, and let slip the [Reservoir] Dogs of war!" 1. Reservoir Dogs: After a rough 1996 campaign which saw them lose over 100 games (their worst season in history), the Dogs rebounded in '98, winning 91 games and a share of the Mantle division pennant. This year the Dogs should do even better. The Dogs' batting lineup this year is positively scary, the best 1-8 roster in the league. 2B Chuck Knoblauch was dealt in the offseason for 30 homer outfielder Jeromy Burnitz, but 2B Randy Velarde should be even better. Todd Helton provides additional slugging power, while OF Bobby Abreu and SS Ron Belliard provide high on-base numbers. All this built around 3B Chipper Jones, the best hitting third baseman in the league. The Dogs have two solid starters in Jose Lima nad Juan Guzman, while Bret Saberhagen, Scott Elarton and Steve Parris pitch well enough to fill the 3-4 slots. If Scott Sullivan gets the nod at closer, he may harken back to the Willie Hernandez era of 100+ IP relievers. OVERALL: The hitting lineup will put up the best run numbers this side of Coors Field, and the pitching is way more than adequate. The question for the Dogs this year isn't whether they will win the Mantle division pennant, but by how many games? 2. Springfield 'Topes: After drifting around for several years, the late 90's have been very good for Springfield, making the playoffs 2 years in a row and winning a share of the pennant last year. The key to this team is pitching. Kevin Brown has been stellar the past couple of years, and 1999 is no different. The other starters are not exactly in the ace category, but are better than the 5+ ERA innings eaters others must employ. Lots of potential relievers in the bunch. The hitting isn't quite a thorough as with the Reservoir Dogs, but they've got some decent hitters. The 'Topes are low on homer hitters (released-and-redrafted 1B Tino Martinez is the only real threat to hit 30), but with Bernie Williams, Luis Gonzalez, and Jose Vidro they have quite a few people who can slug near .500 without resorting to the long ball. OVERALL: This team is going to be very dependent on Kevin Brown contending for a Cy Young award, but they are still very much in the hunt for a wildcard spot. 3. Charlottesville Squids: After winning the CFOD championship in 1996, the Squids cratered for the past 2 years. 1999 should see them finally getting out of their rut. The hitting side of things is very balanced. 2B Luis Castillo is an ideal leadoff hitter, getting on base alot and stealing mondo bases. Rondell White isn't quite as injured this year as last, Sean Casey is maturing into an excellent 1B, and 3B Dean Palmer and OF Gary Sheffield are both solid veterans who can knock it out of the park with great frequency. Former Conehead John Smoltz was acquired in the off-season, which gives Charlottesville a bonafide ace. The Squids will benefit from a deep bullpen. The only downside is at the 4-5 slots in the rotation, which feature batting practicesque (try saying that 5 times!) hurlers. OVERALL: Expect a much better showing by the Squids in '99. If the 'Topes falter, the Squids will easily move into the 2nd place slot in the division. 4. Mechan Syndicate: These guys are going to be fun to watch. A team full of bombers in Coors Field. Fully expect them to shatter the league record for runs scored, last set by the Climbers in '96 in (you guessed it) Coors Field. Barry Bonds has a bit of the injury bug this year, but could still hit 40 homers. Shawn Green and Rafael Palmeiro could each hit 50 homers in the friendly confines of their home field. Let's not forget Roberto Alomar, who may have his best year ever at the plate. So if the Syndicate are so good at the plate this year, why are they predicted to finish only 4th? Mainly because their pitching is as bad as their hitters are good. Russ Ortiz is the ace by default, but he is no 1995 Pete Schourek. Roy Halladay will be a good starter down the line, but the trio of Sidney Ponson, Darren Dreifort and Chan Ho Park are going to make it a long season for the Syndicate. OVERALL: They're going to be exciting to watch, but when you attend a Syndciate game, be sure to bring a glove .. both for the top and bottom of the inning. 5. San Francisco Shriners: What a year it was for San Francisco in 1998. They finally put together a solid winning season, led by Sammy Sosa and a bevy of sluggers. While making it as a "mere" league wildcard, the Shriners ran wild in the playoffs, making it to the MK conference finals before losing to the world series-bound Oregon Wet Sox. So how will the Shriners fare in '99? Sosa is back, and his 60 homer power is still with him. Paul O'Neill was dealt in the off-season, but his presence won't be missed much, with improving OF Chad Everett, speedy basestealer Roger Cedeno and OF Glenallen Hill. 2B Eric Young still gets on base and steals quite a bit, and 1B Jim Thome is still the superstar he is. The Shriners could probably use improvements at catcher, shortstop and 3B. On the pitching side of things, their best pitcher is reliever John Rocker, a dynamite hurdler on the field and a spokesman for the team off the field, preaching the wonders of the San Francisco scene. Other than that, there isn't too much to write home about. Ismael Valdes is the ace by default, but the number of crummy pitchers is kept to a minimum. OVERALL: Sammy makes a run for the homer record again. 6. Toronto Towers: It may be a long year for Toronto fans. When your best starter is Terry Mulholland, there is cause for concern. On the hitting side, the Towers do boast the best overall catcher in the league, Ivan Rodriguez, who is the best balance between hitting and fielding. Edgardo Alfonzo is an all-star in the making at 2B. Miguel Tejada is a young shortstop who will only get better with age. Unfortunately, other than that Toronto will have trouble filling the rest of the lineup with quality hitters. Mark Kotsay needs to have a breakout year in 2000. OVERALL: A few good hitters, but the lack of starting pitching will hurt the Towers this year. When Tejada matures as a hitter & the pitching gets better expect a rise in the standings. *************************************************************************** Koufax division preview: The Sox have the vets to win the division, but the Rock have the youth to make it difficult. 1. Oregon Wet Sox: Bagwell, Garciaparra, Larry Walker, Andruw Jones. If only every team could be so lucky to have these guys at the heart of the order. Oregon was lucky last year, going to their 2nd straight world series appearance. Andruw Jones is coming into his own as a legit hitter. Walker, Bagwell and Garciaparra are likely MK all-stars. Michael Barrett is an emerging young 3B who for at least this year will provide above average numbers at catcher. Mike Mussina once again anchors the pitching staff, with Sterling Hitchcock as a capable 2nd starter. Andy Benes returns to the team via the draft, but Benes and 5th starter Rolando Arrojo are not going to be very good in the 4th-5th slots. A trio of relievers, Kevin McGlinchy, Roberto Hernandez and Antonio Alfonseca should make the 8th & 9th innings not too much of a problem. OVERALL: Their marquee hitters are still marquee, and the pitching is good enough to make Oregon the odds on favorite for their 2nd pennant in 3 years. 2. Cincinnati Rock: The last couple of years have been forgetable, with the team losing an average of 92 games in 97 & 98. Thanks to some excellent drafting and maneuvering, the core is in place for Cincinnati to contend for years to come. The core of the team is in the duo of Troy Glaus and Carlos Beltran. Glaus is a bit of a free swinger this year, but can knock them out of the park. Carlos Beltran seems to be able to do a little bit of everything in the outfield, and he's only 22. While the young'uns mature into superstar hitters, the Rock have a ton of veteran talent who can hit now, including OF Paul O'Neill, SS Tony Fernandez and OF Brady Anderson. On the pitching side, the Rock have a promising young ace in Kevin Millwood, who can hold his own with anyone else in the league. Andy Ashby and Bartolo Colon are legit aces on other teams but get to face other people's 2-3 starters. Scott Williamson and Armando Benitez may very well be the best 1-2 reliever punch in the league. OVERALL: They've got youth, they've got experience, they've got pitching. They'll push for a conference wildcard while waiting to capture the pennant in 2000. 3. Somerville Sluggers: The Sluggers won another pennant in 1998, but saw an early exit to the playoffs thanks to the upstart Shriners. The off-season saw longtime franchise player Barry Larkin leave via free agency. The Sluggers hitting should hold up well. Manny Ramirez is back in top form, and will contend for MVP honors. Larkin won't be missed all that much, as Tony Batista manages to punch in 30 homers from the shortstop position, as does 3B Robin Ventura. OF Doug Glanville and 1B Mark Grace score well in the on-base and slugging percentage department without putting up too much pizzazz. Curt Schilling remains the Sluggers staff ace, although he'll be battling injuries all season. Ron Villone and Chris Carpenter can't be counted on to pitch every 5th day, but will need to try anyways, as the rest of the starters are iffy. Derek Lowe comes in as the odds-on favorite for the closer role, who is enough of an innings workhorse to be able to consistently pitch the 8th & 9th inning. OVERALL: The hitting is fine, but the pitching is a little thin this year. 4. Hillsborough Regulators: This will be the first year that Hillsborough doesn't have Roger Clemens manning the mound on opening day. In his place is 4.0 ERA starter Jon Lieber. Youngster Garrett Stephenson is only a part time starter this year, but there are hopes he can regain his lost rookie form in the future. Other than that, the starters go from bad to worse. On the closer side, they've got the choice of off-season acquisition Trevor Hoffman, who was co-MVP of last year's playoffs, or else go with relief innings workhorse Danny Graves, who can pitch 100 innings entirely in relief. On the hitting side, Hillsborough picks up the services of veteran SS Barry Larkin, whose on-base and base stealing ability will be handy at the top of the order. There's no Sammy Sosa in the bunch, but Jason Giambi can smack 30 and Ed Sprague and Al "faithfully" Martin have some pop to their bats, and there's a bunch of role players just waiting to play above their ability. OVERALL: No style, all substance, which will translate a lot better to the win column than all style, no substance. 5. Boston Brewins: Swing for the fences! This a team built right, where patience at the plate isn't a virtue, "walk" is a 4-letter word, and the goal is to get the ball over the fence or not at all. Greg Vaughn smacked 60 homers last year, and could do the same in '99. The other corner outfield position will be filled by a slugger, either draftee Jermaine Dye or vet Jose Canseco. Unfortunately for Boston, they can't play both at the same time. Mike Lieberthal gives his best Mike Piazza impression this year, good for 30 homers and giving Boston a solid 3-4-5 order of the lineup. Joe Randa provides quality at bats at 3B. Unfortunately for Boston, the giant sucking sound they hear will be from 2B where Mickey Moriandini will call home, and CF, where somehow Brian L Hunter made his way back to the roster via a very, very, *very* late draft pick. On the pitching front, ace Brad Radke has turned into a very solid Jack McDowell-esque #1 starter. John Halama and Darren Oliver are capable 2-3 starters, although they'll be iffy facing an all-lefties lineup. OVERALL: They've got some players that will make the fans show up in the seats, but they'll need more horses to move up in the standings. 6. Zippys: Hey, put these guys higher! The Zippys put up their best season in '98, winning 88 games and nearly qualifying for the playoffs, and the thanks they get is a last place pick in '99. You can't blame it on Derek Jeter, who has elevated himselve into the elite trio of superstar shorstops along with Garciaparra and Rodriguez. Nor can you blame it on 1B/OF Brian Daubach, OF Geoff Jenkins, C Dave Nilsson and 1B John Olerud, who each put up more than decent onbase and slugging numbers. You can't blame it on Jamie Moyer either, who while is no Pedro Martinez will hold his own in the ace pitching slot. Well, who can you blame it on? How about Russ Springer, Brian Moehler, and Jeff Weaver, who just don't have the stuff to be part of a winning rotation. Well, OK, it's a bit harsh, but a last place finish gives the Zippys something to strive to overcome. OVERALL: Someone has to be picked to be last, but if a miracle happens with their pitching rotation, their hitting is more than enough to propel them higher. ********************************************************************** Ruth Division Preview: The monsters of the Ruth division are still on the prowl. 1. California Coneheads: After 3 years of frustration at getting run out of the playoffs, California found the magic word to winning it all again: wildcard. As the Ruth-Young conference wildcard, California won game seven of last year's world series to capture their 5th CFOD championship behind the bats of Craig Biggio, Mike Piazza, in-season acquisition Juan Gonzalez, and 16-game regular season winners John Smoltz and Tom Glavine. Yet, time marches on, and no sooner than the Coneheads cleaned up their post- celebration than changes started to happen. Longtime 2B Craig Biggio and ace hurler Tom Glavine were traded in exchange for starter supreme Randy Johnson. Also waived "bye bye" was longtime ace John Smoltz, sent to the Squids for young 2B Ray Durham. So how does the '99 Coneheads fare against Conehead teams of the past? Pretty well, actually. The rotation won't remind anyone of the '97 Smoltz-Glavine-Estes-Fernandez uberrotation, but it's quite good by '99 standards. In addition to Johnson, there's "career year" Todd Ritchie, Mike Sirokta, and part time young phenom Tim Hudson. On the relief side, co-playoff MVP Mariano Rivera returns to the closer role. The hitting corps is solid from 1-8. Shannon Stewart is maturing into an above average leadoff hitter, Mike Piazza and Juan Gonzlaes provide a lot of pop in the middle, and OF Preston Wilson, 3B Scott Rolen, 1B Frank Thomas, 2B Ray Durham and SS Aaron Boone ensure that the only easy out is in the 9th batting position. OVERALL: How do they keep doing that? A reinvigorated California team means goodbye to that pesky conference wildcard slot. 2. Road Warriors: Different management, same killer time. The former Whaleheads franchise got scary the past several years, winning the CFOD championship in '98. Unfortunately the team drifted without a captain last year, barely missing the playoffs. This year will correct that in a major way. The Warriors play in lefty friendly Busch Stadium, which will pad the stats of 40+ homer sluggers 1B Carlos Delgado, and OF Brian Giles and CF Ken Griffey Jr. Alex Rodriguez is a top 3 SS, and Troy O'Leary and Fernando Tatis are 30+ homer threats in the OF and 3B spot, respectively. Catcher is a black hole, but with this lineup, who cares? What hampers the Warriors from being in the #1 spot pre-season is the relative lack of pitching. Jose Rosado is the ace by default, but he's no Randy Johnson. Pat Rapp and Chuck Finley provide innings. OVERALL: Pitching is a bit iffy, but with sluggers like these, who needs pitching? 3. San Diego Termites: 1998 was a banner year for San Diego. After playing almost and not quite for several years, the Termites put it all together in '98, winning the Ruth division pennant (only the 2nd team ever to do that) and posting the league's best record (only the 2nd team ever to do that, too). Naturally, after a season like that, the only way to go is down, but not as far down as you might think. Albert Belle is back and brings his sunny disposition with him. Mike Sweeney has blossomed into a high walk high slugging hitter, and this year is behind the plate. In fact, just clone a decent walker, .500 slugging batter and you've got 2B Jeff Kent, 1B Lee Stevens, and OF's Dante Bichette and Steve Finley. Omar Vizquel doesn't get as much attention as the Derek Jeter's of the world, but he can hit, get on base, steal 2nd, and play excellent defense. On the pitching side, things get a little dicey. David Wells is once again the team's ace, but the "mature" lefty will have some difficulties going against Randy Johnson. Kent Bottenfield knows how to win games, but will he be able to contain right-handers? The other pitchers are pretty much forgettable, but even still the Termites should place middle of the pack in pitching. OVERALL: Of course it's going to be a bit of a letdown after a monster 105 win season, but the Termites are still in it. 4. Topeka MooseDogs: Talk about turnover. The MooseDogs are now on their 7th owner in 9 years. As such, the new team hasn't fared too well over the years, but the new ownership has things on the right track. They've got young catching slugger Jason Kendall, who unfortunately has big injury problems this year. In the off-season they traded for 1B/OF Richie Sexson, who hits 30+ homers now and the potential for 40-50 in the future. Bobby Higginson was brought on board as a reclamation project, and could return to star level next year. While Topeka waits for the future, 1B Fred McGriff enjoys a resurgent '99 and 3B Todd Zeile is as dependable as always. On the pitching front, Topkea scored a major acquisition in the draft with longtime ace Roger Clemens. If Clemens can get back to form next year, he's a steal. Meanwhile, Omar Daal, Kris Benson and Jason Schmidt form a better than average 2-4 spot in the rotation. Ugueth Urbina and Turk Wendell form a solid 1-2 punch as relievers. OVERALL: They've got a few good "value plays" which should make them competitive in 2000. 5. Miami Mangos: Another year, another promising #1 pick crashed & burned. Kerry Wood joins Matt Morris, Alan Benes and longago hurler Alex Fernandez as former promising Mango pitchers felled by injury. Step on up, Freddy Garcia! The promising young hurdler hopes to break the 1st round draft pick Mango curse. Joining Garcia in the rotation is Omar Olivares and Dave Burba to form a nice little 1-2-3 pitching combo. On the hitting side, the Mangos did get something for #1 1998 pick Kerry Wood: #1 1994 pick Raul Mondesi. His average, on base average and strikeout numbers are mediocre, but he can hit the longball, as can 3B BJ Surhoff and Kevin Young (who each can hit .300!). OVERALL: If they can stop their promising young pitchers from getting badly injured, they can start their climb up the standings. 6. Carolina Lightning: Ouch, this is the first time Carolina has been picked dead last in their division. But Carolina isn't one of those 100-loss dead last teams, it's just that the Ruth division is a little more competitive this year. Ace Randy Johnson was dealt in the off-season, bringing in pitcher Tom Glavine and 2B Craig Biggio, who was a former member of the Lightning before being traded in 1994 for Chili Davis and Lou Whitaker. Mo Vaughn is the heart of the team, although he "only" slugs .500 this year. Ellis Burks can crank 30 homers in limited playing time, while Brian Jordan will provided quality numbers from the outfield spot. On the pitching side, Shane Reynolds becomes the new staff ace, with Tom Glavine being a decent #2 pitcher. The other starters are nothing to write home about, and the relief corps may make it a little too exciting in close late inning games. OVERALL: They'd place higher in other divisions, but in the competitive Ruth division expect a lower showing. *************************************************************************** Young Division Preview: Battle of super pitching vs. super hitting 1. Park City Climbers: The Climbers' best season was in 1994, when a Moises Alou and Ken Caminiti powerd the offense and Ben McDonald and Andy Ashby each won 19 games to give them 102 wins. They've been chasing that season ever since, and 1999 looks to be their best chance yet to get a triple-digit win season. Let's start with pitching. The Climbers have one of the best pitchers in the league in Pedro Martinez, who will vy for the Cy Young award. Pete Harnisch would be the ace on many teams, but settles for dominating the #2 starters of the league. Jeff Zimmerman has the capacity to be a superstar closer, and Rick Aguilera should put in a good year as the setup man. On the hitting side, the Climbers are no longer in Coors field, but they should have plenty of pop anyways. Ken Caminiti was dealt last year for Jay Bell, but got Ken back in the draft. Jay Bell has his best year yet, with potential 40 homer power in the 2nd base slot. Rusty Greer is the best no-name outfielder in the business. Reggie Sanders, Todd Hundley and Phil Nevin are all journeyman who can hit 25 homers, and the Climbers will get excellent production from the 1B slot, whether it's Eric Karros or Harold Baines. OVERALL: Pedro will provide the pitching, and the Climbers have enough batting power to clinch their 1st ever pennant. 2. Arizona Thunder: McGwire, McGwire, McGwire. That's all you need to know. For the past 3 yeras, the Thunder have won an average of 90 games, capturing the pennant in '97 thanks in large part to McGwire's bat. The 1999 season is no different. McGwire mania is still in full swing, and he's got an excellent supporting cast. Chuck Knoblauch was acquired in the offseason, and he's a shoo-in to score well into the triple digits. Matt Williams puts in his usually excellent season, hitting mid 30 in homers. Johnny Damon, Mike Cameron and Matt Stairs make for an above-average outfield. On the pitching front, Alex Fernandez and Mike Thurman are Arizona's two best pitchers, but both are only part timers. Between them and Kenny Rogers, the Thunder will be competitive on the mound. In the relief area, Matt Mantei, Mike Timlin and John Wetteland give Arizona plenty of options at closer. OVERALL: A punishing offense and competitive pitching staff will make Arizona a tough team to beat, and could easily clinch the '99 pennant. 3. Seattle Moshers: Sans a forgettable 1996 season, Seattle has always had a winning record, and has always been in competition for the division pennant. 1999 should see the same result, although Seattle's roster is getting a little older, and the momentum isn't as strong as it used to be. Greg Maddux and David Cone still pack a potent 1-2 punch in the top of the rotation, although Kevin Appier, Gil Heredia and Justin Thompson are mediocre additions to the end of the order. On offense, MVP runnerup Ray Lankford is back, but suffers through an injury-plagued season. Last year's 1st round pick Travis Lee is a bust this year, but 1B duties are capably manned by John Jaha, who has mid 30's homer power. Magglio Ordonez has knocked his performance up a notch and is now a level below superstar. Lots of platooning will make the Mosher offense potent this year. OVERALL: Same old, same old, a winning record but probably will fall short of the pennant. Needs a youth infusion pretty soon, or things could get ugly in a year or two. 4. Brookfield Brouhaha: Placed 5th last year in the pre-season, the Brouhaha defied predictions to win 97 games and the Young division pennant by 9 games, thanks to some rock solid pitching. The pitching returns for Brookfield. Mike Hampton has elevated his game to Cy Young status, but the gap between the ace and the rest of the starting rotation is iffy. Billy Wagner and Mike Reminger form a strong relief combo. On offense, Jeff Cirillo mans 3rd base, and his on base skills could get him the nod at the all-star break. Other than Edgar Martinez, power is a little hard to come by on the roster. OVERALL: The Brouhaha has a habit of making teams that don't look as good on paper shine, so this year won't be an exception. 5. Sacramento Fish: The youth movement continues. Sacramento's neverending acquisition of prospects is starting to pay some dividends. Vladimir Guerrero is the best young slugger in the game, and could perform like he does for the next 15 years. Ben Grieve is another young slugger who has 30 homer power this year, as does 1B Paul Konerko. 3B Adrian Beltre seems to get younger by the day, and should already start contributing. What absolutely destroys this team's chances this year is the pitching. No true ace to speak of, but the Fish do have lots of promising young talent. 1st overall pick Rick Ankiel is a future ace. OVERALL: The Fish keep getting them young, and one of these year's the Fish will have a truly scary core of players. Until they mature though, it'll be lower division finishes for them. 6. San Francisco Piazza's: San Francisco saw the writing on the wall early in the off-season, and made plans to rebuild, trading vets Livan Hernandez and Raul Mondesi and getting injured but potentially much better players Moises Alou and Kerry Wood. As such, much of the roster is a disaster zone. The Piazza's do have a good core of hitters, with 1B Tony Clark and off-season acquisition 3B Vinny Castilla providing homer power. SS Rich Aurilla, acquired from the Brouhaha, provides quality at bats from the shortstop position. With platooning, the hitting can be decent, but the pitching is going to get them to the 100 loss category. Scott Karl, Shawn Estes (1999 version), or Chuck Nagy do not an ace make. Steve Karsay has the makings of a closer, but you can't get saves in games you are down 5-9. OVERALL: 1999 will be a year to forget for San Francisco, but a healthy Moises Alou, Kerry Wood and a high #1 draft pick can do wonders.