1996 CFOD PREVIEW ** EDITORS NOTE: The following are my opinions only. The standard deviation of predicted finishes is +/- 6 spots. :) Mantle Division: In this division it is rather easy to pick who will be on top, and who will be on bottom. But the middle four teams are all within a stone's throw of each other, and at least one of the playoff wildcard teams should come from this division. 1. Charlottesville Squids: It has been a lean couple of years for the Squids, after their success in the early 90's. But that should change this year, thanks to a rebuilding effort. Their all-star outfield of Brady Anderson, Juan Gonzalez and Gary Sheffield should average over 45 home runs *each*. The Squids also boast the best pitching staff in the division, led by staff ace Juan Guzman. The Squids have no real holes in their roster, and should be one of the teams who achieve triple digits in the win column. Look for the Squids to easily win their division, and to be a serious contender for the CFOD championship. 2. Springfield 'Topes: The 'Topes? Picked as second in the division? You better believe it. Bernie Williams is a top-five center fielder. The roster is also filled out with plenty of talented-but-overlooked players such as Bobby Higginson, Tino Martinez and Mark Whiten. Their offense certainly isn't the same level as the Squids or other big-boppers of the league, but that's OK, because they have a pitching staff who can win games with the 'Topes level of support. Kevin Brown is a Cy Young candidate, and Astacio and Pettitte should win plenty of games. Look for the 'Topes to have their best season ever, and to contend for a playoff spot. 3. Reservoir Dogs: Hard to believe that four seasons ago there was no such team called the Reservoir Dogs. The Dogs have taken the league by storm, posting a winning record in their first year as an expansion team, and winning their division the next two. Its hard picking the defending pennant winner as being a 3rd place team. The Dogs certainly won't be giving up without a fight. Sean Berry and John Valentin were both traded in the off-season, paving the way for superstar Chipper Jones to have a full season at the plate. Jones, outfielder Ron Gant and first baseman Harold Baines will have plenty of RBI opportunities, thanks to Tony Phillips, one of the better leadoff hitters in the game. John Valentin was effectively traded for Hideo Nomo, who combines with Shane Reynolds to form one of the more potent 1-2 pitching combos in the league. The Dogs also have prospects up the wazoo, and some of them could be traded during the season for additional batting punch or a starter. Overall the Dogs probably won't be able to match their 106 win season of 1995, but the Dogs could finish second in the division and obtain a wild card spot. 4. Mechan Syndicate: It may be hard to pick the defending pennant winner as third in the division, but it is even harder to pick the defending CFOD champ as fourth. The patented Syndicate attack is still there, led by Barry Bonds and Rafael Palmeiro. But last year's MVP Reggie Sanders has an injury plagued season, and draft pickup Luis Gonzalez will have to take his place. Still, the Syndicate will miss Pete Schourek's pitching more than Sanders' hitting. Schourek was the ace pitcher the Syndicate had never had before. Without Schourek, the Syndicate go back to their patented Syndicate relief pitcher attack, where they go at you with so many good relief pitchers that you almost forget that their starting pitcher corps are horrendous. And the lack of starting pitching is the Syndicate's downfall this season. Dave Burba and Scott Sanders could win 15+ games this year, but the rest of the starters could lose just as many. The Syndicate will be raising team ERA's all over the place this season, but will be raising opposing batting averages as well. The Syndicate should get a winning record this year, but their starting pitching is a glaring weakness which can't be ignored. 5. Toronto Towers: What to make of the Towers? They seem to be perennial underachievers, all the while picking up franchise players high up in the draft. Kenny Lofton is the best leadoff hitter ever in the CFOD, and Chilli Davis, Tim Salmon and Ed Sprague each will bang out 30 homers. Jason Kendall is a young rookie who seems to hit like a middle infielder, but he's a step up from Charles Johnson. Mark Gardner and Tom Candiotti are half decent starters. The Towers boast a strong reliever corps as well as somewhat mediocre #3-#5 starters. It's hard trying to predict where the Towers will end up, since they seem as likely to win 90 games as they are to lose 90 games. The Towers have way too much talent to finish with the third worst record in the league. The Towers have the batters to score some runs, and have the pitching necessary to win some games. The Towers won't challenge the Squids for the pennant, but the Towers should be able to stay with the rest of the pack in the Mantle division. 6. San Francisco Shriners: Woe is the Shriners. Last year the Shriners boasted what was probably the finest pitching staff ever assembled in the league, led by Cy Young winner Randy Johnson. Despite their lousy offense, the Shriners won 83 games, which, believe it or not, is a franchise best. Unfortunately for the Shriners, their lousy offense is back, and they've brought a lousy pitching staff with them. Randy Johnson is effectively gone for the season with an injury, and Jaime Navarro is their 3.92 ERA ace. A 3.92 ERA might win you 20 on the Syndicate, but on the Shriners it might lose you 20. "Power" is never a word you would ever associate with the Shriners. Shortstop Kevin Elster with his 24 homers is the power source of the team. Marty Cordova should have a strong season, and may hit tons of homers in the future. Once again, the Shriners are going to try and make it a speed game, with Tom Goodwin and Eric Young good for 100+ steals combined. All in all, it will likely be a very long season for Shriner fans, but they might be able to look forward to a #1 pick. KOUFAX DIVISION: This division is not as clear cut as the Mantle division. Four teams should compete for the pennant crown, while another team competes for the #1 pick (hint, it won't be the Zippys). 1. Somerville Sluggers: The Sluggers were one of the premier teams of '95, led by Barry Larkin, Chuck Knoblauch and Gary Gaetti. In '96 they should continue this trend. Chuck Knoblauch and Barry Larkin make up the best middle infield in the league. The offense in not big on the 3-run homer (Barry Larkin is the only one who will smack over 30 homers), but the team is built on doubles and stolen bases, and will score plenty of runs that way. On the pitching side, Pat Hentgen and Curt Schilling should win plenty of games for the Sluggers. But their efforts may be counter-balanced by Scott Erickson and Tim Wakefield, who will need plenty of run support in order to win games. Overall, it would be a safe bet to predict the Sluggers to repeat as division winners, but with the level of competition in the division, it may not be easy. 2. Hillsborough Regulators: The Regulators have always seemed to put together winning ballclubs, and this year should be no different. While the Regulators don't have the Slugger's speed, they do have a lot more power, led by Dean Palmer's 35+ potential. The Regulators don't have a lot of franchise superstars, but they make up for it in overall batting consistency. In addition to Palmer, the Regulators also have 5 position players who could smash 20 home runs. On the pitching side, the Regulators probably have the best starting staff in the division. Mark Clark, Denny Neagle and Roger Clemens could each win over 15. The only question mark is whether or not their relief corps can hold onto all of those leads. If the Sluggers can't hold onto the top of the division, look for the Regulators to take it. 3. Cincinnati Rock: The Rock have been an interesting franchise. Back when they were the Kings, they had one of the worst seasons ever by a team back in '93, but came back in '94 to make an appearance in the CFOD championship series. '95 was somewhere in the middle, thanks to a lot of mediocre players. This year hopes to be a lot different. For one, the Rock now have an additional big slugger in Ellis Burks. Manny Ramirez turned into Vinnie Castilla and Brian L. Hunter. Castilla will easily make Rock fans forget about Scott Cooper at third. A big question, though, is whether the Fred McGriff that shows up will be the McGriff that slugged 42 homers with 129 RBI's in '94 or the McGriff that slugged a wimpy .436 in '95. In order for the Rock to contend for a playoff spot they will need McGriff to pull it together. On the pitching side, things should be a lot less chaotic than they were in '95. Donovan Osbourne and Ken Hill should put in nice performances, and the rest of the starters are adequate at #3-#5. Jeff Brantley should be getting a lot of save opportunities. It may be difficult for the Rock to equal their '94 franchise best of 97 wins, but they should provide plenty of competition for the rest of the league. 4. Oregon Wet Sox: The Wet Sox went wild in '94, with Jeff Bagwell setting several individual batting records on their way to the pennant. Then they went on to lose 92 games in '95, thanks to an anemic offense and a medicore pitching staff. The Sox hope for a better outcome in '96. '96 is the year Reggie Jefferson makes a solid contribution to the team, which will help offset the injury to Larry Walker. In addition, the Sox now have another power source in Steve Finley. But other than Bagwell, no full-time Sox hitter has a slugging average over .440. On the pitching side, the Sox boast a fairly competent relief staff, but most of the starters have an ERA that is a little on the high side (especially for a team that will probably be a middle-of-the-pack run scorer). The Wet Sox should be competitive in '96. Nomar Garciparra and Andrew Jones could be superstars for the Wet Sox in '97, so there definitely is something to look forward to. 5. Zippys: The '95 Zippys were not just bad, they were infamous. After the '94 season, most of the Zippys' better players left for Japan or retired. The Zippys were left with guys who hit .240/.300/.340, and set the record for fewest runs over a season. Their pitching was almost as but not quite as bad as their hitting, finishing with a sky-high 4.82 ERA. The team shattered the loss record with a mind boggling 116, and Steve Trachsel tied the individual loss mark with 22. Perhaps all of those former Zippy players knew what was ahead, and took the year off. Most of them have since come back to play for other teams. Now that the obligatory Zippy bashing has been covered, let's look at their '96 offering. With the #1 overall pick in the draft, the Zippys chose Derek Jeter, who they hope will be a fixture at shortstop for many years. Dave Nilsson rebounds from a bad '95 season to put in a good one. From top to bottom the Zippys have plenty of guys in the mid .400 slugging range, which would actually be a welcome change of pace. On the pitching side, the Zippys may arguably have one of the best overall pitching staff in the division! Steve Trachsel should rebound from his forgettable '95, and Fernando Valenzuela and Jamie Moyer are on board to solidify the 2 & 3 pitching spot. The Zippys still need a few more stars on their roster if they ever want to see over .500 again, but the nightmare that was the '95 Zippys is a thing of the past. 6. Boston Brewins: After co-winning the '93 division pennant, the Brewins have been slumping, finishing dead last in the division in '94 and never contending in '95. Unfortunately, that will continue to be the case for '96. The batting lineup does have some punch, with Jeff Conine and Jeff King each good for about 30 homers. Devon White can still pull it off as a leadoff hitter. But their hitting won't be enough to support their pitching staff, which is downright dreadful. Their starting staff will need a chiropractor, from their necks snapping back from looking at all of those baseballs sailing over their heads and into the stands. Brad Radke, Shawn Boskie and Mark Leiter will allow on the order of 40 home runs each, and that certainly is not conductive to winning ballgames. With the Boston Whaleheads on the other side of town, expect a lot of empty seats at County Stadium this year. RUTH DIVISION: This division has traditionally been dominated by the California Coneheads, and this year will be no different. What is different is the rise of a couple teams to the Coneheads' level, who could spell trouble come playoff time. 1. California Coneheads: It's a given the Coneheads will win the division. With Frank Thomas, Mike Piazza, Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez, and Greg Vaughn each expected to park it over the fence with great frequency, and all-pro pitchers Alex Fernandez, John Smoltz and Tom Glavine each expected to win 20 games, how can you go wrong? Well, you could face a team like the San Francisco Piazzas in the playoffs, and have them sweep you in four games. Last year the Coneheads couldn't get it together in the playoffs, and were handed their first ever playoff defeat. They hope to correct that this year with a return to their usual championship form. Once again, the Coneheads have to be considered as the frontrunner to win the CFOD championship. 2. Boston Whaleheads: In a short period of time the Whaleheads have become a frighteningly good team. In any other division they would easily be pennant winners, but they will just have to settle for being the second best team in the CFOD. Alex Rodriguez, Ken Griffey Jr, Todd Hundley and Sammy Sosa lead a very potent offense. The only downside is Charlie Hayes at third and a scrub-platoon at second. But chances are, by the time these guys get their first AB of the game, the Whaleheads will already have a comfortable lead. The Whaleheads are busting at the seams with prospects. Ruben Rivera, Rosado and Todd Walker are all players who could be stars in the future (and could possibly be traded for infield help this season). On the pitching side, the Whaleheads do not have the best of staffs, but with this offense, it may not be necessary. Jeff Fassero could be a lock on 20 wins. Overall, this is one of the few teams that are in the CFOD elite. Watch out. 3. San Diego Termites: One of the '93 expansion teams, the Termites have slowly but surely improved over the years. Last year they faced a crowded field in the wildcard race and lost their bid on a tie-breaker. This year they hope to make it more decisive. The Termite lineup is a punishing one, with the likes of Andres Galarraga, Bobby Bonilla, Ryan Klesko and Henry Rodriguez waiting to feast on opposing pitchers. On the pitching side, staff ace Ismael Valdes should rack up a lot of victories, and Ho Chan Park could be a future ace starter. The Ruth/Young conference is stocked with quality teams, and the Termites will once again be in the thick of it. 4. Carolina Lightning: The Lightning usually isn't an atrocious team. Almost always competitive, the Lightning won 100 in '94 and lost only 84 in '95. The '96 edition of the Lightning boasts quite a few marquee names. Mo Vaughn and Dante Bichette may revive the old "Bash Brothers" tradition. Cal Ripken is still an above average shortstop, and Matt Williams slugged .500 in 400 at bats. The Lightning should be able to score some runs and put some fans in the seats. Pitching is where the Lightning will struggle. Cone has an injury plagued season, as does Ramon Martinez. Tom Gordon will be the only starter to be in his spot throughout the season, but he has the highest ERA on staff. The Lightning have only been terribly bad once, losing 97 games in '92. But that won't happen this year. Expect to see the Lightning play the spoiler role in the division in not allowing anyone any easy wins. 5. Miami Mangos: The Mangos have had exactly 1 winning season in the CFOD, way back in '92 when the then-named Storm went 91-71. This year the Mangos are a combination of grizzled veterans and unproven rookies. The pitching staff is solid if unspectacular. Alan Benes will probably struggle this year, but he could be an ace starter for years to come. The batting lineup is filled with quite a few sluggers. Joe Carter was nabbed in the draft, and his 30 homers should help quite a bit. Geronimo Berroa has blossomed into one of the better batters in the league. The likes of Tettleton, Carter & Ryne Sandberg are all proven quantities. The only problem is that most of the Mango roster qualifies for social security payments. They're old. The '96 edition of the Mangos probably represents the team's best chance at a winning record since the '92 season, but it won't be a given. 6. Oakville Barracudas: It might be a difficult year for the Barracudas, after last year's promising playoff run. And it can be summed up in one word: Power. Melvin Nieves and Ivan Rodriguez are the only two 'cudas who have any sort of power, and Nieves tends to strike out a lot. Still, they do have a lot of high OBP guys, like Offerman, Naehring and Dave Hollins. Their pitching would be good enough for a high-octane offense, but it can't win games on its own. Charles Nagy is probably the most capable of winning 2-1 contests, and Joey Hamilton is a decent enough second starter. But with little pop in the Barracuda bats and not a lot of speed to offset that, it may be a long season for Oakville fans. YOUNG DIVISION: 1996 may look a lot like 1994 for the Young division. Once again, we have three teams contending for the title, and three others who are not quite as lucky. 1. Brookfield Brouhaha: Division contender #1. Could this be the year the expansion Brouhaha finally gets a taste of post-season play? The Brouhaha features their most potent offense yet, with Jim Edmonds, Edgar Martinez, Jose Valentin and Bernard Gilkey providing the power. Jeff Cirillo, Dave Martinez and BJ Surhoff are no slouches either. Ben McDonald's 3.90 ERA is a little high for the ace starter, but that is made up for by the play of Portugal, Hershiser and Isringhausen in the 2-4 spots. The relief corps is one of the best in the league as well. The Brouhaha have had the tough luck of being in a tough division, but this should be the year that the Brouhaha make it no matter what. 2. Seattle Moshers: Division contender #2. The Moshers have been a fairly consistent team over the years, thanks in large part to continual retention of the key players that make the Moshers win. This year should be no different. Opposing pitchers will have to face a bruising block of hitters in Belle, Buhner, Ventura, Steinbach and Fielder, each capable of smacking 30+ homers or more. Ray Durham has improved over his rookie season and might be a great leadoff hitter for years to come. On the pitching side, the Moshers still have one of the best 1-2 punches in the league in Greg Maddux and Kevin Appier. So, what can go wrong? Plenty. The Moshers had a rather mediocre draft this year. Jay Bell returns, but he's seen better seasons. Doug Drabek & Bill Vanlandingham are pitchers who will only win on run-support. Still, the Mosher core is still here (for now), and that means many wins for the Moshers, and could mean another pennant. 3. Park City Climbers: Division contender #3. The Climbers have usually been a strong team. They finished near the top of the division in '93 and '94, but in '95 the team bottomed out, finishing dead last, thanks in large part to the record-5.73-ERA-high pitching staff. The '96 Climbers should see a return to the glory days of the past. Pedro Martinez once again anchors the staff. Alan Watson and Kenny Rogers are the new faces to the starting corps, and hope to keep their ERA's under 5 (which, in Coors field, may not be that easy of a task!). Park effects will probably make the staff ERA on the high side again, but they're competent. The batting lineup is a strong one, whether it be in Coors or the Astrodome. Rusty Greer has developed into a quality hitter who slugs over .500 without the homers. Ken Caminiti should have his best season yet at third base, while John Valentin should make Climber fans forget about Omar Vizquel (as well we all should). Adding to the offensive fray are retreads Eric Davis and Danny Tartabull, who each should be good for 35+ with the park effects. And don't forget Eric Karros, who gives the Climbers yet another punishing bat. Behind Coors field, the Climbers should have a top-5 offense. Behind Coors field, the Climbers may also have a bottom-5 pitching staff, but it should all even out into a pennant or a wildcard spot. 4. Sacramento Fish: The Fish are an interesting team. The team, last year known as the Mayhem, made the playoffs but were quickly eliminated by the Coneheads. Previously, the team was focused on the offensive talents of Jose Canseco and Dante Bichette. In the offseason, Bichette & Canseco were traded, and the new emphasis is on pitching. In this area the Fish succeed, as their starting staff is the best in the division. The interesting part comes in on the batting side. The Fish are a team filled with part timers and journeymen. An off-season trade for rookies Edgar Renteria and Willie Greene provides the Fish with their two best offensive players, along with Mike Macfarlane. Renteria, Greene and prospect Vladimir Guerrero provide hope for the future, but the Fish might contend for this year's most anemic offense. Still, they've got some pitching. Depending on how much talent can be squeezed from the batters, the Fish could either contend for a wildcard spot or finish dead last in the division. 5. Rivendell Thunder: '93 was the year for the Thunder, who unexpectedly won the pennant that year. But since then it's been rock bottom. '95's terrible showing was mainly due to the front office turmoil during GM changes. There's some residual effects for '96, but the Thunder should improve. It helps when you have Mark McGwire on your team. In about 2/3rds of a season, McGwire should be good for 50+ homers. Benito Santiago should be one of the top 5 catchers in the league, and Marquis Grissom is another standout. There are certainly better pitching staffs in the league, as the Thunder starters should average around a 5 ERA. The Thunder probably will struggle again this year, but they should be able to avoid 90 losses. 6. San Francisco Piazzas: Sometimes you just can't get any respect. The '95 CFOD preview placed them fifth, claiming that they needed a few more big sluggers to win the pennant. Well, guess what? They didn't get any more big sluggers, and they went on to clinch the pennant (by a 12 game margin, I might add). Not only that, but in the playoffs, they mushed the mighty Coneheads in 4 games flat to make their first ever appearance in the CFOD world series. And for this, they get a *6th* place finish prediction? Last year, they had a superstar season from Mondesi and a lot of other good performances from everyone else. That looks to be the same this year as well. Tony Clark was nabbed in the fifth round of the draft, but his 27 homers are a welcome addition to the lineup. Javy Lopez continues to be one of the better young catchers out there, and should continue to get better. Chuck Finley anchors a solid if unspectacular starting pitching staff (of which many teams would like to have). So why are the Piazzas' picked to be 6th? Unfortunately, they don't have the punishing lineups of the Brouhaha, Moshers, or Clibmers, or the pitching staff of the Fish, or a Mark McGwire like the Thunder. They're about the same team they were last year. Which I guess says that the Piazzas' are the odds on favorite to make the world series again!