1989 CDBL PREVIEW "Better late than never!" "All projected standings have a standard deviation of +/- 6 places" AARON DIVISION -------------- #1 - Milwaukee Mashers - Rickey Henderson remains one of the games best table-setters, and should contend for the runs scored and stolen base titles. Alvin Davis should kick up his power numbers, and Ellis Burks and Carlton Fisk will provide punch to the offense in the middle fielding positions. Jay Howell and Rob Dibble will anchor a solid bullpen, while ace Pasqual Perez leads Ken Howell and Frank Viola in a solid rotation. Rick Aguilera could be the #5 starter, but if they have to depend on Mike Witt throughout the season... OVERALL PROGNOSIS: The 1988 AP conference champ is the favorite to win the Aaron division again. #2 - Elk Grove Trout - The off-season acquisition of Wade Boggs gives the Trout one of the best infields in the game. Boggs will hit well over .300, with a high on base average and a fair amount of doubles. 1B Will Clark will be an MVP candidate, slug .500 with a lot of RBI's (especially with Boggs in front of him). Julio Franco is one of the top 2B's in the game, and SS Dickie Thon will be above average. Add to this outfielder Tony Gwynn, and his ability to get on base (and steal them), and you are looking at one of the better offenses in the game. Doug Bair and Dan Plesac are solid relievers, and it's going to be hard to beat the rotation of Chuck Finley, Sid Fernandez, Jim DeShaies, and Dennis Martinez. OVERALL PROGNOSIS: If the Mashers didn't already have a track record for winning, the Trout would be the pre-season pick for #1 in the division. #3 - Point Lomas Friars - The duo of Tim Raines and Ryne Sandberg (who are still good in '89) gets a new addition this year: 1B Nick Esasky, who will pound 30 homers and drive in 100 runs. OF Ivan Calderon gives some additional punch to a lineup which was lacking last year. Scott Garrelts moves to a starter role and should do well. Bert Blyleven adds quality workhorse minutes as the #2 starter. Bill Landrum and Alejandro Pena give the Friars 2 quality closer candidates. OVERALL PROGNOSIS: The Friars cratered in 1988, and will have a wickedly good rebound in 1989. Still, an extra bat in the outfield or another starter could help improve them in the standings. #4 - Fort Worth Cats - Mark Gubicza, Dave Stewart and Jeff Ballard comprise a powerhouse trio of starters. Frank DiPino, Jay Tibbs, Dave Righetti, and Cris Carpenter form a formidable bullpen. Young phenom Ramon Martinez will put up a half year in the rotation. The lineup will depend on Luis Polonia and Brett Butler to generate runs, but their mid 300's OBA will limit their effectiveness. OF Joe Carter can certainly hit the home run, but his low average may limit his RBI opportunities. OVERALL PROGNOSIS: Several starters should have good years, but the lack of guys who can hit for average or get on base will keep the offense in 2nd gear. #5 - Arkham Investigators - After almost reaching the pinnacle of success in a world series appearance in 1987, the dropoff since then has been steep, and will continue to be so. #1 rookie pick Ken Griffey Jr becomes the best hitter on the team, as Wade Boggs was traded for prospect Robin Ventura. Bud Black will pitch 200 innings of quality ball, and Jose Rijo is primed for a breakout year. But the other pitchers are nothing to write home about. OVERALL PROGNOSIS: Can the Investigators make it 2 #1 overall picks in a row? PAIGE DIVISION -------------- #1 - DC Riots - The Riots won the division in 1988, and are favorites again this year. Robin Yount could contend for the MVP award, with a near .400 on base average, .500+ slugging average and good runs scored/RBI's numbers. 1B Fred McGriff is another MVP candidate, and can be counted on for high homer and RBI numbers. Carney Lansford ups his game, hitting for high average with a lot of stolen bases. Jim Gantner, Dan Gladden and Roberto Kelly help make the Riots one of the league's more speedier teams. Dennis Eckersley will simply dominate at closer this year. Todd Burns will be a reliable setup man. Starters Mike Moore, Mike LaCoss and Scott Bankhead should pitch well enough to benefit from the hitter support and Eckersley's dominance in the 9th. OVERALL PROGNOSIS: Make it 2 years in a row for the Riots atop the Paige division standings. #2 - Hurdle Mills Hurdlers - It's been awhile for the Hurdlers, but a few recent imports/drafts and some old standbys should help propel them to the upper standings. Pedro Guerrero should have his best year since his triple crown '85 season, and Lonnie Smith will have a spectacular 1989, hitting for high average, on base average, slugging average, and stolen bases. Dwight Evans may be getting on in years, but the venerable slugger can still get on base and drive in runs. Young catcher Craig Biggio is one to watch. Starter Mike Bielecki can match up with the best of them, and Greg Hibbard, Greg Swindell, Ron Darling and Brian Holman good depth in the rotation. Dennis Lamp, Greg Harris and Dave Smith build up the bullpen. OVERALL PROGNOSIS: The Hurdlers have better than average horses this year for the race. Expect them to be competitive. #3 - Springfield Isotopes - The team that Barry built. Last year they made the playoffs, and as long as Barry Bonds wears the Springfield uniform, they will always be competitive. Bonds won't compete for the homer title this year, but will still put up good numbers with a fair amount of stolen bases. 1B Mark Grace will be a standout, with good average/on base average numbers. 2B Harold Reynolds will be a threat on the basepaths. Rookie Greg Vaughn will see limited action this year, but will provide a presence behind Bonds for years to come. Mark Langston and Joe Magrane are top-flight starters, and closer Doug Jones will be among the best. OVERALL PROGNOSIS: Bonds, Langston and Magrane are great, but will need a few more big bats if they want to compete with Yount & company. #4 - Long Beach Experience - Andre "Hawk" Dawson and associates are all about power. Dawson, Dale Murphy, Rob Deer, Cory Snyder, and Jeffrey Leonard are all capable of 20 homers or more, but will do so with a batting average of .250 or less. One player who doesn't fit the mold is 2B Steve Sax, who can get on base and steal them (so when the 2-run homer is hit, he doesn't have that far to travel). Tom Browning is a workhorse ace, and Tom Henke is a great closer, but some of their 4th & 5th starters could give up more runs than is comfortable. OVERALL PROGNOSIS: The free swinging sluggers will be fun to watch, but the lack of starter depth and table-setters will hurt. Still, there's always "Black Jack" Mcdowell to look forward to in the years ahead. #5 - Fargo Flames - The Flames were still partying from the 1987 pennant when they got the hangover in 1988. Kevin McReynolds was imported in the off-season, and instantly becomes their best hitter. He'll be good in the middle of the order, as will 1B Andres Galarraga, who should also be good for about 25 homers. Import closer Mike Schooler is no Tim Burke, but he's capable. Frank Tanana would be best served as a #2 or #3 starter, but is called on to duel with the Bret Saberhagens and Orel Herhsiser's of the league. OVERALL PROGNOSIS: The Flames are still rebuilding after their successful 1987 campaign, but 1989 should be better than 1988. #6 - Dewey Beach Lush - The Lush were shocked out of a pennant in 1987 and have been trying to recever ever since (all 1 years of recovery). 1989 will be another down year, but there's tremendous promise for the future. Let's talk about the 1990's outfield of the future: Gary Sheffield, Sammy Sosa, and Larry Walker. Wow. Other than Paul Molitor, none of the hitters or pitchers are much to write home about in 1989. OVERALL PROGNOSIS: Every pinch hit and sporadic start of Walker, Sosa and Sheffield will be looked on with keen interest. Otherwise, it's going to be a long season. Gehrig Division --------------- #1 - Ocean Beach Surfers - Picked as #2 last year, they underperformed. This year they are armed to the gills and expectations will be high. Mickey Tettleton switched to fruit loops in the off-season, and will respond with a big season behind the plate. Von Hayes career should get an uptick in '89 as well. Jack Howell, Danny Tartabull, Wally Joyner, Jim Eisenreich and Jerry Browne will make the Surfer offense a machine. On the pitching side, John Smiley, Bryne Smith, and Tim Leary join youngsters Kevin Brown and Greg Maddux to make a strong starting rotation. And there's one Mark Davis having a career year at the closer position. OVERALL PROGNOSIS: The Surfers are loaded with talent, and only a major catastrophe in team chemistry will deny them the pennant. #2 - PV Stallions - The Stallions shocked everyone but themselves when they won the pennant in 1988. They'll be contenders again in '89. The Stallions have an ace's row of starters, with Rick Reuschel, Bobby Welch, John Cerutti and Tom Candiotti all capable of being #1 starters on many other teams. Roger McDowell and John Franco leads a deep and versatile bullpen. The Stallions offense will depend on a lot of speed, as any of their sluggers will be lucky to break 15 homers. Phenom Robert Alomar, OF Cecil Espy and SS Ozzie Guillen should help make the Stallions one of the faster teams in the league. OVERALL PROGNOSIS: Great pitching, but the pitchers are going to have to earn every victory with the lack of a slugging-driven offense. #3 - Concord Minutemen - Formerly known as the San Mateo Traffic, the Minutemen look to recapture the magic of 1987, when then won the CDBL championship. This year will be a big tougher, due to 1988 MVP Jose Canseco's injury. But Kirby Puckett is still around and is as good as ever. He's joined by veterans George Bell and Dave Parker, who are on the downside of their careers but are still effective. 3B/IF Kevin Seitzer is a one trick pony this year, but his one trick (on base skills) will be welcomed. Tim Belcher and Nolan Ryan anchor a competitive rotation, and "Nasty boy" Randy Myers is more than capable of handling the 9th inning. OVERALL PROGNOSIS: The Minutemen may not be in their dominant form from 1987, but they're still good enough to be playoff contenders. #4 - Albuquerque Maul - The Maul have one playoff appearance to their credit, when then 1B Steve Balboni took them to the post-season in '85. They've been trying to get back ever since. In the late 80's the team has belonged to 1B Glenn Davis, who should be back with another 30 homer, 100 RBI season. 2B/3B Jody Reed will provide the table-setting and doubles, while Pete Incaviglia and Jesse Barfield provide extra muscle in the middle of the lineup. Young hurler John Smoltz anchors a potential all-star rotation of Chris Bosio, Mike Scott and Dave Stieb. New draftee Gregg Olson will more than capably handle closing duties. OVERALL PROGNOSIS: One of these years the Maul will return to the playoffs. This may be one of those years. #5 - Topeka Stingers - The Stingers are transitioning. The team of Brett and Mattingly is now the team of Mattingly and Sierra. Donnie "Baseball" puts in his usually excellent year, but alongside that is the breakout year of Ruben Sierra, who could wind up in the leaderboard in doubles, triples, and home runs. Vince Coleman doesn't get on base much, but when he does he's almost guaranteed to score, with his extreme base-stealing skills. Tim Burke, Mitch Williams and Chuck Crim are a fearsome threesome for late innings, and Kirk McCaskill is a starter to contend with. Rick Sutcliffe should be serviceable as a #2 starter, but he could find himself frequently outmatched by the more elite teams in the league. OVERALL PROGNOSIS: Sierra and Mattingly will be good, but there's not enough firepower in the lineup to move them higher. #6 - Homestead Gray's - It's been a lean couple of years, but the Gray's are still looking to build around shortstop Barry Larkin. Unfortunately that plan may be delayed this year, as Larkin is out half the year with injury. Most of the other hitters won't remind anyone of the Surfers. Closer Jeff Montgomery should be good, but the other pitchers might struggle. OVERALL PROGNOSIS: It's not quite yet the Gray's turn to shine. Tiant Division -------------- #1 - Boston Bulldogs - Last year's CDBL champs hope to make it 2 in a row. They won't have Kirk Gibson to lead the way this year, but they will have Kevin Mitchell, who will be a monster at the plate. Mitchell could hit 50 homers. Chili Davis should contribute 20 homers and a fair number of RBI's, and Mike Greenwell will put up some nice sabrmetric stats. In the off-season the Bulldogs traded for ace pitcher Orel Hershiser, who gives them an instant #1 starter. Jose DeLeon moves into the #2 role, where he should be even more effective. Larry Anderson and Jeff Russell provide super-closer duties in the bullpen. OVERALL PROGNOSIS: Last year's champs have enough talent on the roster to make an attempt at a repeat. #2 - Dark Valley Destinies - Always a contender, this may be the year they win their 2nd CDBL championship (1st was in 1986). Howard Johnson could be a 40/40 man in the infield, and Lou Whitaker, Jack Clark and Darryl Strawberry could each hit 30 home runs. Doug Drabek pitches like an ace, and a mix of Chuck Cary, Luis Aquino, Mike Jeffcoat and a few others fills out a nameless rotation. Greg W. Harris or Norm Charlton could be handed the closer duties. OVERALL PROGNOSIS: The Destinies have a lot of firepower, but could be 1 solid starter away from winning the pennant. #3 - Orange Whoop - This is a team on the rise. Early investments in prospects like David Cone and Tom Glavine start to pay off in 1989, as both join the rotation as solid starters. Vet Ed Whitson gets #1 duties, and is solid in that role. Closer duties could be adventuresome, as top candidate Jeff Reardon gives up the ball a bit too much vs lefties. 1B Kent Hrbek remains near the top of the 1B heap, and OF Bo "knows" Jackson could be an all-star in the outfield. 3B Kelly Gruber will be an above- average hitter at the position. OF Jerome Walton could be among the top of this year's rookie crop (for those not named Griffey, anyways). OVERALL PROGNOSIS: The Whoop hitters are starting to gel, and when prospect Juan Gonzalez reaches his stride, watch out. #4 - Dallas Donkeys - For a few years the Donkeys (formerly known as the Mules) have assembled quite an impressive collection of pitching, and this year is no exception. Bret Saberhagen is poised to have a Cy Young monster year, and Roger Clemens, Fernando Valenzuela and Bobby Ojeda complete one of the best rotations in the league. Closer duties are undecided, but it may go to David Wells. Mark McGwire provides the power in the middle, but his numbers will continue a downward trend from his stellar 1987 season. Phil Bradley has provided many excellent seasons for the team, but 1989 will be one of a player in the twilight of his career. OVERALL PROGNOSIS: Great, great pitching, but the lack of hitters may stall the Donkeys in the standings. #5 - Hollywood Stars - For years the Stars have had some of the leagues' more recognizable talent, and that still continues. Eric Davis puts up his usual 30 homer, 30 steals, 30 games missed season, and Bobby Bonilla turns his game up a notch at 3rd. Cal Ripken should once again put up 162 games at shortstop, but won't be the best in his division (that honor goes to HoJo). Bruce Hurst is a great #1 starter, and Craig Lefferts, Jerry Reed and Juan Berenguer are all workhorse relievers. That will be counted on, as the rest of the starting rotation could be eaten alive by the league's power lineups. OVERALL PROGNOSIS: Some nice hitters, but the #2-5 starters might make it a long season in Hollywood.