1988 CDBL PREVIEW "Your Mileage May Vary" Remember 1987? The year when everybody and their mother could smack the ball out of the park? Well, there'll be no more of that, mister! The name of the game in 1988 is pitching and defense. Get ready for lots of 1-0 ball games. As usual, my predictions have an accuracy of +/- 6 places in the standings, and are best used by those teams who do a lot better than I expected to mock me after the season is done. AARON DIVISION PREVIEW: 1. Milwaukee Mashers: Last year the Mashers clinched the Aaron division pennant in the final days of the season, only to be eliminated from the playoffs by the World Series bound Investigators. This year they're back and better than ever. They've got a fully heathly Rickey Henderson (who will make a run at the stolen bases record), and will get slugging help from Alan Trammell, Alvin Davis and Ellis Burks, along with outfielder Fred Lynn. Very few holes in the lineup. And their hitting isn't their best part. Milwaukee features a killer rotation, with Pasqual Perez, Frank Viola, Rick Reuschel, Jeff Robinson and Allan Anderson. Plenty of closer candiates to choose from, with Rob Dibble having the inside track. OVERALL: They've got hitting, they've got pitching, the question isn't whether they'll win games, it's a question of how many? 2. Forth Worth Cats: Formerly known as the Philadelphia Liberty, Forth Worth has always featured a load of talent, but seemlingly unable to put it together for a pennant winning season. This year may be different. How can you go wrong with an outfield of Brett Butler, Joe Carter and Harold Baines? It's still "Wally World" in Forth Worth, although Joyner will probably be hard pressed to follow up his slugging season of '87. Like the Mashers, the Cats feature an impressive & deep starting rotation. Mark Gubicza, Bob Knepper, Dave Stewart and Jose Guzman are all candidates to win 15-20 games this year. Bryan Harvey bursts onto the scene in '88 and will be an elite closer. OVERALL: With this amount of talent, how can the Forth Worth Cats lose? 3. Elk Grove Trout: The Trout had one of their best years ever, winning 96 games and making the playoffs. At the heart and center of this team is 1B Will "the Thrill" Clark, who should contend for MVP honors. At the top of the order are infielder Julio Franco and Tony Gwynn, each who hit well, walk well, and steal well. Clark should get plenty of RBI opportunities with these guys. After these three, the hitting talent gets a little thin. On the pitching side of things, the rotation is a fearsome foursome of Dave Martinez, Jim Deshaies, Sid Fernandez, and Greg Swindell. Henneman returns as team closer and should do a decent job. OVERALL: They have pitching to run with the other teams in the division, but with only 3 real hitters they'll have a hard time claiming the division. 4. Point Lomas Friars: Oh, to return to the glory days of the mid 80's. Back then Point Lomas terrorized the league, winning games in bushels. That won't be happening this year. It's another rebuilding year for the Friars. They do have some hitters to keep the fans in the seats. Tim "Rock" Raines and Ryne Sandberg probably won't perform as well as they have in the past, but they're still above average for their position. Aaaand..that's about it. Their pitching is pretty bad, even by 1987 standards, so they're going to get blown out a lot. OVERALL: There's always next year. 5. Arkham Investigators: What a difference a year makes. Last year, Arkham barely lost out on the Aaron division pennant, but steamrolled their way to a world series appearance. In the off-season, the roster was blown apart and it looks like the Investigators won't be contending in 1988. League MVP Wade Boggs should have his best year yet, and George Bell should do OK, but the rest of the roster will be batting 0-fer. A young Jose Rijo will do well, but the rest of the pitching staff is cannon fodder. OVERALL: Yikes. It's going to be a really rough year. PAIGE DIVISION PREVIEW: 1. DC Riots: This team probably has the deepest roster in the league. And a big bat in the middle in Fred McGriff. McGriff should do really well in his first full year in the league. Joining him in the middle of the lineup are outfielders Hubie Brooks and Robin Young, each capable in driving in loads of runs. Helping matters is rookie Chris Sabo, who provides at bats from 3rd base as well as lots of stolen bases (speed is something this team has in abundance). On the pitching side of things, ace Tim Leary can stack up to anyone, Dave LaPoint is a solid #2, and Scott Bankhead, John Cerutti, and Todd Burns fill out the rest of the rotation. DC has two of the best relievers in the game in Dennis Eckersley and Alejandro Pena. OVERALL: Lots of talent on this roster. The odds on favorite to win the division in 1988. 2. Springfield Isotopes: There's a new sheriff in town, and his name is Barry Bonds. Bonds is just warming up, and this year he has lots of support. 2B Harold Reynolds can get on base and steal them as well. Mark Grace isn't a super-slugger, but is decent with a bat, as is Willie McGee. On the pitching side of things, Mark Langston is your typical big-innings, strong- innings kind of pitcher. Joe Magrane will battle injuries, but when he's healthy he's very hard to beat. The rest of the starters are so-so. For closers, Randy Myers, Doug Jones and Lee Smith form a trio of ace relievers. OVERALL: Things will probably be even better in the future, but the talent surrounding Barry should help put some wins on the board. 3. Long Beach Experience: Formerly the Taos Shaman, the Experience are fully of vets who want to win now. At the heart of the team is outfielder Andre Dawson and 3B Gary Gaetti, both potential all-CDBL sluggers. Steve Sax provides base stealing abilities at the top of the order. And if they can stand the K's, Rob Deer should have a big year at the plate. Teddy Higuera has been the ace for years, and 1988 is no exception. Tom Browning is a decent innings filler, but the rest are below part. Brian Holton and Tom Henke provide closer duties. OVERALL: Dawson and Gaetti will take them far, but can their pitching hold up? 4. Hurdle Mills Hurdlers: Ahh, the Hurdlers. Hurdle Mills is still trying to get back to the year they had way back in '84, when they posted 103 wins and a pennant win. Through it all has been Hurdler mainstay Dwight Evans, who was all-CDBL last year, and who could do it again. The Hurdlers acquired former triple crown winner Pedro Guerrero from the Mashers, who will provide some pep in the order. Gerald Young isn't much with a bat, but he's a speed demon on the basepaths. Downing isn't a speed demon, but does provide some power from first base. As far as pitching is concerned, Hurdle Mills does not enjoy the deep rotations of the Mashers or the Cats. Their best pitcher, youngun Brian Holman, is only a part timer. They do have a deep bullpen, though. Steve Farr, Dave Leiper and Dave Smith are all hurlers who know how to get people out. OVERALL: Shaky starting pitching will likely result in a non-pennant winning year for Hurdle Mills. But they do have a blossoming Craig Biggio to look forward to. 5. Dewey Beach Lush: Last year they were chock full of all-stars but the team chemistry wasn't there, and they were overtaken by the Fargo Flames. Does the team still have talent this year? Sure. Eddie Murray will likely be an all-star, and Paul Molitor will likely be all-CDBL at second base. Kevin Seitzer and OF Rafael Palmero can get on base and have a little power in their bat. In fact, most of their all-star hitters return for another go in '88. The big problem is that, other than ace Mike Scott, the pitching leaves a lot to be desired. Scott could win 20, but the rest of the roster could very well lose 20. OVERALL: They've got lots of hitting, but the lack of pitching will hurt. 6. Fargo Flames: I'll say this much: Tim Burke is a future mayor of Fargo. Tim Burke led the Flames to the Paige division pennant and the AP conference finals in 1987. Unfortunately, due to budgetary constraints Burke was let go in the off-season. Young reliever Bobby Thigpen may put up a Burkesque year down the road, but this year he'll be merely "OK". The starting pitching, other than a half year by Floyd Youmans, isn't much to shake a stick at. On the hitting side, this is the year Andres Galarraga comes into his own, smacking homers and driving in runs like there's no tomorrow. Former Bulldog franchise player Dale Murphy won't have his usual stellar year, but he'll still be productive. OVERALL: 1987 will always be a year to remember for Fargo. But time marches on, and the Burke-less Flames will be hard pressed to repeat their '87 season. GEHRIG DIVISION PREVIEW: 1. San Mateo Traffic: The champs. San Mateo steamrolled over the competition last year en route to their 1st ever CDBL championship. The team is back and is as good as ever. This is the year Jose Canseco shines. The former #1 draft choice is slated to have his best year ever, smacking homers, stealing bases and all those other good things that make up an MVP. Oh yeah, and the other outfielder, Kirby Puckett, may very well finish up 2nd in the same MVP standings. The rest of the lineup is rather average, but should be elevated by Canseco and Puckett. For pitching, Key is still effective, although he has injury problems and won't be up to the standards of his Cy Young '87. Tim Belcher and Nolan Ryan will make the rotation competitive, and both are good with the strikeout. The Traffic do have a strong bullpen to offset their merely-OK starting rotation, with Paul Mirabella, John Costello, Jesse Orosco and Ken Dayley all being above-average relievers. OVERALL: You can't go wrong with the defending champs, particularly when they've got a couple of superstars like Jose Canseco and Kirby Puckett. 2. Ocean Beach Surfers: 1984 CDBL Champs, and competitive in (almost) every year after that. The Surfers battled the Traffic throughout 1987 before settling for 2nd place. The Surfers have a pitching rotation to rival anyone's in the league. Bryn Smith, John Smiley, Ron Darling, Eric Show, and a youngster named Greg Maddux fill out a strong rotation. Mark Davis and Lance McCullers are elite closers. On the hitting side, Kevin McReynolds and Danny Tartabull are no Canseco and Puckett, but they have 30 homer potential with good sabrmetric numbers. Ozzie Smith is still a great table-setter, and import Von Hayes has a little base-stealing ability himself. OVERALL: Ocean Beach has a very strong team this year. San Mateo has their work cut out for them if they want to repeat. 3. PV Stallions: How 'bout them Stallions? These guys have gotta win one of these years, and this might be the year. For years they've had a solid rotation, and this year isn't too different. Doc Gooden is as good as ever, and Tom Candiotti will also put in a good season. John Franco should be extremely good in the closer spot, and could contend for Fireman of the Year. None of the hitters really stand out, but there's enough talent to put some runs on the board. While none of the hitters will make the all-star team, there could be enough platooning that the Stallions finish pretty high in batting average. OVERALL: Best chance yet for the Stallions to succeed. 4. Topeka Stingers: The 1985 and 1986 division winners, the Stingers took a step back last year due to some atrocious pitching. Thankfully, the pitching should be a bit better this year. Vet Charlie Liebrandt is the ace on the staff, and Andy Hawkins, Pete Smith and Storm Davis form a competant rotation. Greg Harris does his Mark Eichhorn impression this year, throwing 100+ innings of strong relief. The usual suspects are back in the hitting lineup. George Brett is moving to first, and Mattingly to the outfield, but both are as potent as ever. Vince Coleman will make another run at his own stolen base record, and joining them is youngster Ron Gant, who will provide some power at second base. OVERALL: Topeka could be the wild card in this division. If their pitching gels, watch out. 5. Homestead Gray's: Homestead's had it rough the past couple of years, but some of their early investments are starting to pay off. Management felt Barry Larkin was good enough to start over Dick Schofield, who was let go in the post-season. Larkin hits well, gets on base and steals bases as well. Ken Phelps is the teams primary source of power, who should hit 25 homers in part-time action. Orel Hershiser has always been good, but this year he will be very good, and could contend for a Cy Young award. Don August is serviceable as a part time #2 starter, and Dennis Rasmussen and Jamie Moyer round out the rotation. Dave Righetti returns as closer and should have another good year. OVERALL: Orel will be fantastic, as will Barry Larkin, but they need to get more ammo to compete in the Gehrig division. 6. Albuquerque Maul: All set to contend last year, their pitching fell apart and they lost 96 games. They come back and hope to contend this year, but it's going to be tough. Glenn Davis had a great 1987 and will have a great 1988. The rest of the line won't make the all-star team, but could be particularly effective in a platoon situation. The Maul have a trio of starters, Dave Steib, Chris Bosio, and John Dopson would can compete with most pitchers in the league, and Mike Jackson will throw a lot of innings as closer. OVERALL: If Albuquerque's pitching holds and the platoon situation goes well, they could shoot up the standings. If not, they won't. TIANT DIVISION PREVIEW: 1. Dark Valley Destinies: Dark Valley won the CDBL title in 1986, and almost won the Tiant division pennant last year. This is Darryl Strawberry's team now, and the straw-man is contending for MVP honors, hitting homers and driving in runs in bunches. Jack Clark is good for 30 homers again, and they'll get lots of production out of outfielders Dave Henderson and Kal Daniels. In addition, 2B Lou Whitaker was acquired from the Trout, providing punch in the middle infield. The pitching staff is darn competitve, with John Tudor, Bob Walk, Scott Terry, Doug Drabek and Don Robinson able to compete with anybody in the league. Juan Agosto is able to pitch a lot of quality innings in relief, and is the odds on favorite to win the closer position. OVERALL: Dark Valley is packed to the gills with talent, and will be very tough to beat in the Tiant division. 2. Hollywood Stars: Last year's pennant winner, Hollywood is back in the hunt, looking for their second division title. Hollywood once again features all the players that are popular on baseball cards. Andy Van Slyke, Bobby Bonilla and Eric Davis all have some power, can get on base and in Van Slyke/Davis's case, steal a few bases. Cal Ripken continues to putter on as one of the league's best shortstops. On the pitching side, Danny Jackson is a bonafide ace, and Bruce Hurst will be strong in the #2 slot. The rest of the rotation is a little weak. Dan Plesac provides closing duties, and Gene Nelson will soak up a lot of quality innings throwing in the bullpen. OVERALL: The Stars have what it takes to contend again, but the pitching at the lower end of the rotation may kill some momentum. 3. Orange Whoop: Thanks to some prospects of seasons past blooming, 1988 may not be such a bad year for the Whoop. Leading off is young David Cone, who will have a breakout year in the rotation. Veteran Mike Boddicker is a competant #2, and Rick Mahler and Ed Whitson eat up innings in the latter part of the rotation. The young prospect Tom Glavine may even get a few starts. Jeff Reardon is slated to be the team's closer. On the hitting side, the Whoop have quite a few people who can hit the long ball. OF Dave Winfield, Cory Snyder, 1B Kent Hrbek and OF Bo Jackson should all be good for 25 dingers, which could go far in a league where scoring 1 run wins a game. Kelly Gruber continues to improve at 3B, and will only get better. OVERALL: The prospects of years past are starting to pay off. 4. Boston Bulldogs: Say it ain't so! The Bulldogs opening their season without Dale Murphy in the lineup? Alas, it's true, he was dealt halfway through last season. Not to worry, because in Murphy's place the Bulldogs have a pair of sluggers: Mike Greenwell and Investigators-acquisition Kirk Gibson. Both should do well, as will infielder Kevin Mitchell and OF Mookie Wilson. So why the low division ranking? Well, this year pitching really counts, and unfortunately in a division patrolled by Roger Clemens and John Tudor, Boston comes up short in this area. The starters will be "OK", but won't make any all-star games. In the bullpen, however, they might. Jeff Parrett and Larry Anderson are pros, and know how to get the outs. OVERALL: Boston needs a Clemens-killer to move up in the standings. 5. Missouri Mules: Despite not winning the pennant last year, the Mules still put in a pretty impressive performance. Rookie Mark McGwire was phenominal, finishing 2nd in MVP standings and shattering records for homers and RBI. McGwire's back, and although we can never expect him to have such a breakout season again (beat 66 homers? That's crazy!), he's still very good in 1988. For pitching, the Mules still boast quite a few stars in the rotation, starting with perpetual ace Roger Clemens. The dude can throw. Joining him in the rotation are Bobby Ojeda, John Candelaria and Bret Saberhagen. Todd Worrell is the leading candidate for closing duties this year. OVERALL: McGwire and Clemens, what a pair. But the lack of overall depth in the hitting lineup may hurt a bit.