2005 CDBL SEASON PREVIEW "Your Mileage May Vary!" Predicted Playoff Teams: Aaron Division - Point Lomas Friars Paige Division - Tualatin Thunder Gehrig Division - Concord Minutemen Tiant Division - Avila Dragons AP Conference Wildcard - Manhatten Beach Mashers GT Conference Wildcard - Albuquerque Maul #1 League Wildcard - Arkham Investigators #2 League Wildcard - Madison Muckrakers WORLD SERIES PREDICTION - Friars over Dragons ******************************************************************* Aaron Division - 1. Point Lomas Friars (64-98, 6th in Division) PLUSES: Andy Pettitte, Kevin Millwood, Gustavo Chacin and Jeff Weaver help form one of the better rotations in the division. The bullpen doesn't have much star power but it is deep. Cliff Floyd, Jason Giambi and off-season acquisition Gary Sheffield will rake, and Jason Varitek and Matt Stairs contribute to a deep lineup. MINUSES: Compared to other teams, very little. And whatever deficiencies pop up during the season will likely be addressed via trade. OVERALL: The Friars have the talent to capture the division and make a deep run in the playoffs. 2. Manhatten Beach Mashers (Last Year - 90-72, 2nd in Division) PLUSES: John Smoltz returns to the rotation, and John Patterson, Jose Contreras and CC Sabathia round out a formidable rotation. Chad Cordero and Matt Wise lead a capable bullpen. David Ortiz and Morgan Ensberg should have all-star years, and Rafael Furcal should score plenty of runs at the top of the order. MINUSES: JD Drew is injured this year, and the Mashers will need to have everyone perform at their best to keep up with the Friars. OVERALL: The Mashers have the talent to be a contender this year, the games will have to be played to see who comes out on top. 3. Arkham Investigators (Last Year - 77-85, 3rd in Division) PLUSES: Mark Buehrle, Cliff Lee, Jarrod Washburn and Danny Haren lead a rotation that should give opposing hitters fits. BJ Ryan and Huston Street lead a solid bullpen. The lineup is full of strong hitters like Derrek Lee, Alfonso Soriano, and Aramis Ramirez. Journeymen like Luis Gonzalez, Ivan Rodriguez and Reggie Sanders will help keep the runs going. MINUSES: They play in the same division as the Friars? OVERALL: Arkham has the talent to make it to the post-season, it's just a question of how well the team plays together. 4. Dallas SuperSquad (Last Year - 94-68, 1st in Division) PLUSES: Roy Halladay is still an elite albeit injured starter this year. Paul Byrd and Noah Lowry will help keep things competitive. Derrick Turnbow should be stellar as a closer, and the rest of the bullpen is capable. Adam Dunn, Moises Alou and Derek Jeter are all-star talents, and Ken Griffey Jr is finally semi-healthy again. MINUSES: The SuperSquad might need another hitter and a back end of the rotation pitcher to move up in the division this year. OVERALL: Dallas should still be competitive this year, but their road to the Division title will be more difficult. 5. Montreal Voltigeurs (Last Year - 76-86, 4th in Division) PLUSES: Manny Ramirez is still Manny, and should have an all-star season. Placido Polanco should have a good year as a table-setter at the top of the lineup. Josh Beckett and Derek Lowe are a dynamic 1-2 combination at the top of the rotation, while the 3-5 starters should be decent. MINUSES: Not a whole lot of other hitting talent to surround Manny so the team will struggle to consistently manufacture runs. The bullpen will be a problem, so expect a lot of 8th/9th inning heartbreak. OVERALL: They still have Manny but will be hard pressed to finish in the upper half of the division. 6. Elk Grove Trout (Last Year - 72-90, 5th in Division) PLUSES: Ben Sheets and Freddy Garcia should be effective starters. Jose Valverde and Brad Lidge will be dominant in the bullpen. MINUSES: The hitting is really, really weak. Justin Morneau and Edwin Encarnacion will help in the long run, but not in 2005. OVERALL: It looks to be another rebuilding year in Elk Grove. ************************************************************************************* Paige Division - 1. Tualatin Thunder (Last Year - 94-68, 2nd in Division) PLUSES: One of the best pitching staffs in the league, the rotation features the likes of Chris Carpenter and Bartolo Colon. The bullpen is stacked, led by Mariano Rivera, Francisco Rodriguez and Tom Gordon. Miguel Cabrera has ascended into an elite talent, and Eric Chavez, Preston Wilson and acquisition Victor Martinez should help Tualatin be above average in run production. MINUSES: Little, if any. This team is strong. OVERALL: Stacked pitching, a strong lineup and no more Barry Bonds-led Isotopes should give Tualatin their first franchise Division title since 1987. 2. Madison Muckrakers (Last Year - 48-114, 6th in Division) PLUSES: AJ Burnett, Aaron Harang and Esteban Loaiza help fill out a capable rotation, and #1 overall pick Felix Hernandez will help too. Brian Fuentes and Mike Timlin lead one of the deepest bullpens in the league. Andruw Jones should contend for MVP honors, and Richie Sexson, David Wright, Felipe Lopez and Coco Crisp should generate plenty of runs. MINUSES: This is just Felix Hernandez's rookie year? It can be hard to go from triple digit losses to triple digit wins, but the Muckrakers will try. OVERALL: The rebuilding plan should start to pay off this year as the Muckrakers move back into contending for the post-season. 3. DBL Fishbiscuits (Last Year - 63-99, 5th in Division) PLUSES: Brett Myers, Josh Towers, Jeff Suppan, Mark Prior and Jason Marquis form one of the deepest pitching rotations in the league. Bob Wickman should be an elite closer, and Albert Pujols, acquisition Miguel Tejada and youngster Matt Holliday should create plenty of runs. Rookie Robinson Cano has a bright future ahead of him. MINUSES: After Wickman, the bullpen starts to get a bit shaky. OVERALL: The 2001 & 2001 champs are back, baby! 4. Seattle Decaf (Last Year - 66-96, 4th in Division) PLUSES: Carlos Silva, Joe Blanton and Livan Hernandez should pitch well and eat up a lot of innings. Billy Wagner leads a solid bullpen, and from top to bottom the Decaf should have one of the better pitching staffs in the league. Joe Mauer starts his star arc this year. MINUSES: No batter is likely to make the all-star year this year - they could use a Manny Ramirez type to drive the offense. OVERALL: Some great pitching, but their hitting will have to come together in a big way for them to move up in the standings. 5. San Diego Chickens (Last Year - 77-85, 3rd in Division) PLUSES: Paul Konerko, Vladimir Guerrero and Jermaine Dye form one of the better hitting cores of the league. Craig Counsell should score some runs at the top of the lineup. John Lackey, Tom Glavine and Scott Kazmir help form a competitive rotation, and Jason Isringhausen and Kyle Farnsworth lead a solid bullpen. MINUSES: The top of the division is surprisingly deep. The question is, do the Chickens have enough talent to make their mark? OVERALL: San Diego has a nice team this year - the regular season has to play out to see how they do. 6. Springfield Isotopes (Last Year - 109-53, 1st in Division, AP Conf Champ) PLUSES: Lone holdover Esteban Yan can tell everyone about the good ole' days. MINUSES: Nobody from Springfield's epic contention run starting in 1986 is on the roster anymore, and the replacements would be hard pressed to beat an expansion team. OVERALL: Springfield had a fantastic run, but age and salary constraints have forced an massive rebuild. See you in 2008! ************************************************************************************* Gehrig Division - 1. Concord Minutemen (Last Year - 93-69, 2nd in Division) PLUSES: Johan Santana should contend for a Cy Young this year, and Trevor Hoffman leads a deep and capable bullpen. Mark Teixeira, Troy Glaus and Lance Berkman lead a potent offense. Chipper Jones is somewhat hobbled by injuries but is an elite player when he's on the field. MINUSES: When Santana isn't starting the rotation gets really iffy really fast. OVERALL: Santana is a talent for the ages - but the rest of their rotation may decide if Concord can clinch the Division title this year. 2. Albuquerque Maul (Last Year - 77-85, 5th in Division) PLUSES: Pat Burrell, Michael Young, Grady Sizemore and acquisition Todd Helton should help the Maul score some runs. Roy Oswalt and Brandon Webb are aces in the rotation. Al Reyes and Francisco Cordero lead a strong bullpen. MINUSES: Time will tell if the #3-#5 starters can win, and the lineup could use a big home run hitter in the middle. OVERALL: The hitting is decent, the pitching is decent, Albuquerque will be a contender in the division this year. 3. Topeka Stingers (Last Year - 81-81, 4th in Division) PLUSES: Jeff Kent, David Dellucci, Jorge Cantu, Chad Tracy and Hideki Matsui provide a lot of punch to the lineup. Youngster Ryan Howard will start to contribute. The Stingers should have one of the better offenses this year... MINUSES: ...which they will need because their starting rotation will not win games on their own. Todd Jones and Ryan Dempster give Topeka some options in the bullpen. OVERALL: Great hitting, poor rotation. If the Stingers can keep their run differential positive they'll finish in the upper half of the standings. 4. Hong Kong Cavaliers (Last Year - 93-69, 3rd in Division) PLUSES: Dontrelle Willis and Pedro Martinez will throw fire on the mound this year, and Joe Nathan can save games with the best of them. Carlos Delgado is still an elite hitter, and Carlos Lee and Brian Giles will help score runs. MINUSES: After the top 2 starters the rotation gets bad pretty fast, as does the bullpen after Nathan. OVERALL: Some good players but a lack of pitching will hurt the Cavaliers this year. 5. Anchorage Gold Diggers (Last Year - 97-65, 1st in Division) PLUSES: Jake Peavy and Kenny Rogers are solid starters. Melvin Mora and Brian Roberts are some of the better hitting infielders in the game. Michael Barrett and Nick Johnson will help as well. MINUSES: Other that Mora not a whole lot of home run power on the team, so lots of runners may be left on base when the 3rd out is recorded. The bullpen doesn't have a lot of depth and the back end of the rotation gets real scary really fast. OVERALL: Anchorage won the division last year - a subsequent bad draft position means a recovery year for the Gold Diggers. 6. Carlsbad Surfers (Last Year - 73-89, 6th in Division) PLUSES: Jon Garland and Barry Zito should be strong in the rotation. Acquisition Travis Hafner can knock the stuffing out of the ball, and Craig Biggio, Shawn Green and Raul Ibanez give Carlsbad some elderly production. MINUSES: Some young blood is desperately needed - Jose Reyes will help a lot in future seasons. The bullpen is also a bit sparse. OVERALL: Someone has to be picked to be last this year - but last place in this division doesn't indicate as bad of a season as last place in others. ************************************************************************************* Tiant Division - 1. Avila Dragons (Last Year - 104-58, 1st in Division, 2004 CDBL Champions) PLUSES: Who needs a full roster when you have elite talent like Alex Rodriguez, Johnny Damon, Jim Edmonds and Roger Clemens? Brad Penny should be effective in the rotation and Rich Harden is playoff starter ready. MINUSES: Salary constraints have limited much of the roster. The back half of the rotation, the bullpen and half the hitters don't match up with the players left from their 2004 championship team. OVERALL: Enough elite talent to still be playoff bound, but age and salary indicate Avila is in a win-now mode. 2. Boston Bulldogs (Last Year - 96-66, 2nd in Division) PLUSES: Randy Johnson, Carlos Zambrano, Doug Davis and Tim Wakefield form the strongest rotation in the division. Salomon Torres, David Weathers and Kelvim Escobar lead the strongest bullpen in the division. MINUSES: After Bobby Abreu, Jose Cruz and Jay Gibbons, the hitters are a whole lot of "meh". Mega-platoons should help, but how much? OVERALL: Some great pitching on the team, it will be a question of how many runs can the lineup score on whether Boston can overtake Avila at the top of the standings. 3. Alphaville Cautions (Last Year - 84-78, 4th in Division) PLUSES: Tony Clark, Geoff Jenkins and Randy Winn won't get much media coverage, but they are solid hitters. Rotation led by Bruce Chen and Shawn Chacon is decent for this division. Roberto Hernandez and Clay Hensley give the Cautions some options in the bullpen. Hanley Ramirez is a talent to watch for the future. MINUSES: The Cautions could use another starter, another hitter and another reliever to give the Dragons a run for their money for the Division title. OVERALL: With the Tiant division expected to be weak this year the Cautions should count on an upper division finish. 4. Milwaukee Pilots (Last Year - 91-71, 3rd in Division) PLUSES: Chase Utley has emerged as an elite talent at 2B, and Ichiro Suzuki and Carl Crawford provide hitting, speed and defense in the outfield. Vernon Wells should be good for 30 home runs. MINUSES: Starting pitching is really rough, and the bullpen is no better. The offense won't be good enough to overcome the pitching. OVERALL: The 2003 champs still have some talent, but several years at the top are starting to take their toll. 5. Georgia Pines (Last Year - 66-96, 5th in Division) PLUSES: Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder are solid workhorses in the rotation, and Danys Baez is a capable closer. Jason Lane has some pop in his bat in the lineup. MINUSES: Most of the hitters are fairly mediocre, as is the rotation and most of the bullpen - most of them were traded in the off-season to kick off a rebuilding effort. OVERALL: Georgia is looking to the future, as their present indicates a finish in the lower half of the standings. 6. Dedham Destroyers (Last Year - 59-103, 6th in Division) PLUSES: Jason Bay and Johnny Peralta should have stellar years at the plate and prospect Prince Fielder should be a future cleanup hitter for years. MINUSES: Pitching is still a wreck, and the rest of the batting lineup is replacement level -- at best. OVERALL: Dedham is still going through rebuilding pains - check back in 2007.