2004 CDBL SEASON PREVIEW "Your Mileage May Vary!" Predicted Playoff Teams: Aaron Division - Manhatten Beach Mashers Paige Division - Springfield Isotopes Gehrig Division - Carlsbad Surfers Tiant Division - Boston Bulldogs AP Conference Wildcard - Tualatin Thunder GT Conference Wildcard - Albuquerque Maul #1 League Wildcard - Avila Dragons #2 League Wildcard - Concord Minutemen WORLD SERIES PREDICTION - Isotopes over Bulldogs ******************************************************************* Aaron Division - 1. Manhatten Beach Mashers (Last Year - 110-52, 1st in division, AP Conf Champ) HITTING: JD Drew and David Ortiz can flat out hit. Rafael Furcal and Ryan Freel are more than competent table setters, getting the walk and getting the steal. Marcus Giles, Eli Marrero, John Mabry and Todd Greene help give the Mashers a swarm of quality hitters. Scoring runs won't be an issue for Manhatten Beach. PITCHING: Odalis Perez is the ace, and should see plenty of win opportunities. CC Sabathia and Steve Trachsel are capable in the rotation, but the Mashers may be looking to fill out the tail of their rotation with better candidates during the season. John Smoltz and Juan Rincon lead a very dangerous bullpen. OUTLOOK: Some nice hitting, great bullpen and just enough starting pitching to make the Mashers the early season division favorite. 2. Elk Grove Trout (Last Year - 87-75, 2nd in division) HITTING: Elk Grove will rely on a trio of veterans to power the offense. Acquisition Vinny Castilla, Marquis Grissom and draftee Jeff Bagwell have entered the journeyman phases of their career, but can still hit in 2004. Shannon Stewart and Magglio Ordonez are injured this year, but between them make up a single good outfielder. All in all they should be competitive in the runs department. PITCHING: Ben Sheets is a legit staff ace, and Freddy Garcia and Woody Williams can match up well with other middle rotation starters. The bullpen isn't big on marquee names and could use a bon-a-fide closer. OUTLOOK: Some OK hitting and some OK pitching translates into an OK season. 3. Dallas SuperSquad (Last Year - 77-85, 4th in division) HITTING: The newly named SuperSquad should score plenty of runs. Scott Rolen and Derek Jeter are among the best at their positions, and Moises Alou and Adam Dunn should rack up the stats. Garret Anderson and Michael Barrett also help make this an above average offense. PITCHING: The rotation looks to be one of patchwork, with Glendon Rusch, Paul Byrd, Wilson Alvarez and Roy Halladay cobbling together 2 starters. The bullpen won't leave any hitters quaking in their boots, but may do an OK job. OUTLOOK: The pitching is a bit average, but a strong hitting lineup will make the SuperSquad a dark horse candidate for the division. 4. Arkham Investigators (Last Year - 82-80, 3rd in division) HITTING: The Investigators have some thump this year. Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, Kevin Mech and Derrek Lee can bomb 'em with the best of them. Paul Lo Duca does pretty good for a catcher, as does Edgar Renteria at shortstop. Longtime Investigator Reggie Sanders returns to the team to join fellow draftee Luis Gonzalez as the veteran presence. PITCHING: Mark Buehrle is a workhorse ace, and Russ Ortiz is a solid 2nd starter. The rest of the rotation gets shaky after that. After Jaime Cerda the bullpen gets very, very thin. OUTLOOK: Arkham should score plenty of runs, but give up plenty of runs in the process. 5. Montreal Voltigeurs (Last Year - 74-88, 5th in division) HITTING: Manny Ramirez is every bit the franchise player and still plays like it. Placido Polanco and Jose Vidro should see plenty of run scoring opportunities. Carlos Pena is still a bit raw but has plenty of power. Nick Swisher and Kevin Youkilis are stars on the rise if not able to fully contribute this year. PITCHING: Josh Beckett is the staff ace, although he's only good for 3/4 of a season. After Paul Wilson the rotation gets dicey. Kiko Calero, Tomo Ohka and Mike Adams help lead a solid bullpen. OUTLOOK: Some good hitters and a decent bullpen, but the starting rotation might hold Montreal back this year. 6. Point Lomas Friars (Last Year - 71-91, 6th in division) HITTING: Run production will be problematic this year. Jason Giambi is injured (and older), and the rest of the lineup won't hit for average or for power. Jason Varitek should have a good season, and will contend for an all-star nod at catcher. PITCHING: Yikes! OUTLOOK: Poor run production and one of the league's worst pitching staffs will make it a rebuilding season for the Friars. ******************************************************************* Paige Division - 1. Springfield Isotopes (Last Year - 90-72, 1st in division) HITTING: Barry Bonds continues to play at a ridiculous level, and Miguel Tejada, Gary Sheffield, Travis Hafner and Mark Kotsay should play at all-star levels. They even landed catcher Ivan Rodriguez in the draft, further solidifying one of the league's top hitting lineups. PITCHING: Curt Schilling is as dominant as ever, and John Thomson, Mike Maroth and Ryan Drese are more than competent given the supporting runs they'll be getting. LaTroy Hawkins and BJ Ryan gives the Isotopes some closer candidates, but they might be looking for bullpen help during the season. OUTLOOK: A great hitting lineup and good enough pitching should make Springfield an early favorite to repeat at the top of the division. 2. Tualatin Thunder (Last Year - 74-88, 2nd in division) HITTING: No longer the Bagwell & Piazza show, the Thunder had a pretty good hitting lineup before they landed Big Jim Thome in the draft. Thome will team up with Miguel Cabrera, Eric Chavez and Jose Guillen to form one of the better lineups in the league. Edgardo Alfonzo, Rocco Baldelli and Todd Walker help fill in the gaps. PITCHING: Chris Carpenter returns to the rotation after an injured 2003 and will be depended on a lot. Mike Hampton is a capable 2nd starter, but the rotation gets very thin after that. With the likes of Mariano Rivera, Francisco Rodriguez and Tom "Flash" Gordon leading one of the best bullpens in the majors, late inning leads will be safe. OUTLOOK: A stellar bullpen and some big league hitters have the Thunder thinking post-season. How well their rotation holds up may determine what seed they enter as (or not at all). 3. DBL Fishbiscuits (Last Year - 57-105, 5th in division) HITTING: A few years removed from their championship and subsequent cratering, the Fishbiscuits are starting to pick up the pieces. Albert Pujols is the lone holdover, and is joined by Corey Patterson and phenom Matt Holliday. Milton Bradley and Omar Infante help the lineup, although they may need another year of seasoning to scare the opposing pitchers. PITCHING: Al Leiter, Tom Glavine, Jason Marquis, Jose Lima and Rodrigo Lopez give DBL the best rotation in the division. Mike Stanton and Guillermo Mota lead a solid bullpen. OUTLOOK: The Fishbiscuits have the best pitching staff in the division. Will their hitting be good enough to re-enter the post-season since their championships of 2001-2002? 4. Seattle Decaf (Last Year - 66-96, T-3rd in division) HITTING: While they wait for phenom picks Joe Mauer and Adam LaRoche to develop, the Decaf will try to manufacture runs with a patchwork offense. Matt Lawton can hit and run, as can Eric Byrnes. Erubiel Durazo will hit for a high average, but there's a distinct lack of 40 home run hitters that may put Seattle in the middle of the pack in run production. PITCHING: Carlos Silva is the staff ace by default, but won't be confused with Roger Clemens. The rest of the rotation is very shaky. The bullpen is thin, but Billy Wagner is ready to nab any saves he can. OUTLOOK: The pitching is weak and the hitting so-so, but things can only get better with Joe Mauer on board. 5. San Diego Chickens (Last Year - 66-96, T-3rd in division) HITTING: The Chickens have some guys who can go yard. Vladimir Guerrero, Adrian Beltre, Sean Casey and Paul Konerko are all stellar hitters with power and an eye for the walk. Jermaine Dye and Bernie Williams only add to the lineup. Run scoring will not be a problem for this team. PITCHING: Jason Isringhausen could be a closer on a championship team. The rest of the pitching staff would not share the same distinction. OUTLOOK: A lot of baseballs are going to be used at Chickens games, both from being launched from the San Diego sluggers as well as those given up by the pitching staff. 6. Madison Muckrakers (Last Year - 56-106, 6th in division) HITTING: Coco Crisp, Jimmy Rollins and Andruw Jones will be fun to watch, and David Wright is a promising young rookie, but the rest of the lineup are below replacement value. PITCHING: AJ Burnett and Jon Lieber would be big winners on upper division clubs, but will struggle with lack of run support. The other half of the pitching staff is below replacement value. OUTLOOK: Another rebuilding year for Madison. ******************************************************************* Gehrig Division - 1. Carlsbad Surfers (Last Year - 47-115, 6th in division) HITTING: Chuck Finley and Hank Blalock bring the thunder for the Surfers. Shawn Green and Craig Wilson are also solid sources of power. Raul Ibanez does everything but hit home runs, and Eric Young gets on base and can swipe a few. Overall a better than average lineup. PITCHING: Jake Westbrook and Brad Radke are a dynamic 1-2 pitcher combo that can go toe to toe with anyone else, and rookie Zack Greinke, Jeff Weaver and a freshly returned Greg Maddux round out a very dangerous rotation. Trevor Hoffman and Akinori Otsuka lead a deep and talented bullpen. OUTLOOK: The Surfers have the hitting and the pitching to win the division, but it will be very competitive. 2. Albuquerque Maul (Last Year - 81-81, 3rd in division) HITTING: No 40 home run hitters in this lineup, but from 1-8 each batter can hit. Juan Pierre and Chone Figgens can get on base and steal them, and Lyle Overbay would be an MVP candidate if he hit some home runs. Mike Lowell, Michael Young, Johnny Estrada and Juan Uribe contribute to this competitive offense. PITCHING: Brandon Webb, Roy Oswalt, Matt Clement, Jaret Wright and Kris Benson form one of the deepest and most talented rotations in the majors. Francisco Cordero leads one of the best bullpens in the game. Pitching is definitely Albuquerque's strong suit. OUTLOOK: The pitchers will be dominant, and if the hitting lineup clicks the Maul could win the division. 3. Concord Minutemen (Last Year - 71-91, 5th in division) HITTING: My goodness what a lineup. Lance Berkman, Jeromy Burnitz, Mark Teixeira, Chipper Jones, all bashers. Ryan Klesko adds depth and Mike Lieberthal and Mark Bellhorn shore up the lineup. Fearsome. PITCHING: Johan Santana begins his arc as a perennial Cy Young candidate. Kevin Brown, Jeff Suppan and Victor Zambrano are solid if unspectacular middle of the order starters. Armando Benitez is in line for a lot of saves, and Shingo Takatsu and Kent Mercker help lead a solid bullpen. OUTLOOK: Some terrifying hitters, Johan Santana in all his glory and a good bullpen makes Concord very competitive this season. If the rest of their starters come together they could move up. 4. Topeka Stingers (Last Year - 87-75, 2nd in division) HITTING: There's some quality bats in this lineup. Jeff Kent, Carlos Guillen and Javy Lopez provide strong hitting in the infield, and Hideki Matsui, Ben Broussard and Kevin Millar bring it for the outfield. Stolen bases really are not Topeka's thing, but they have the batting average, walk ability and power to score some runs this season. PITCHING: Jason Schmidt anchors the rotation as the ace. After a partial season from Zach Day, the rest of the rotation will need to rely on run support to win. Ugueth Urbina is a name brand closer, but their bullpen isn't as strong as some of the others in the division. OUTLOOK: Make no mistake, this is a good team - if their pitching gels they could finish higher in this very competitive division. 5. Hong Kong Cavaliers (Last Year - 100-62, 1st in division) HITTING: The 3 Carloses (Delgado, Beltran and Lee) gives Hong Kong plenty of firepower this year. Casey Blake should also join the 30 home run club. Larry Walker is a fraction of his former self (precisely 50%), but he's still elite when he's at the plate. Things drop off a little bit after the 4 1/2 men but not enough to put them below average. PITCHING: Pedro Martinez is starting to not scare people as much, and Dontrelle Willis and Ted Lilly help give the Cavaliers an exactly average rotation. Joe Nathan and Brad Lidge are both lights-out close candidates, but the bullpen gets very thin after that. OUTLOOK: Decent hitting and so-so pitching and a very competitive division means someone has to finish 5th. 6. Anchorage Gold Diggers (Last Year - 76-86, 4th in division) HITTING: Melvin Mora is the cornerstone of the lineup, hitting for average and for power. Brad Wilkerson is a 30 home run threat, and the lineup is full of Lew Ford types who don't excite with stats but still manage to get the job done. PITCHING: Young Jake Peavy is starting to show his stuff as an ace pitcher. Veteran David Wells is tasked with being the #2 starter. Brian Lawrence and Matt Morris round out the rotation. Jose Mesa is the name most people recognize in the bullpen, and they have enough quality reliever arms to keep things in check. OUTLOOK: It's not as if Anchorage is a bad team. In other division they could finish in the upper half, but the Gehrig division looks to be the league's best this year. Someone has to be picked last. ******************************************************************* Tiant Division - 1. Boston Bulldogs (Last Year - 92-70, 4th in division) HITTING: Bobby Abreu is one of the top outfielders in the game, hitting for average, power and can swipe a base or two. Bill Mueller and Ray Durham provide good sabermetric numbers. After Craig Munroe the lineup gets a little thin, but Boston hopes Abreu can power them to above average run production. PITCHING: Randy Johnson, Carlos Zambrano, Oliver Perez and Joe Kennedy may be the best top 4 rotation in the majors. Keith Foulke and Salomon Torres are elite relievers, even if the rest of the bullpen isn't. OUTLOOK: The Bulldogs should be able to ride their starting rotation to the Tiant division pennant. 2. Avila Dragons (Last Year - 84-78, 5th in division) HITTING: The level of hitting on this squad is practically unfair. Alex Rodriguez, Johnny Damon, Jim Edmonds and Aubrey Huff will give opposing pitchers fits. Mike Sweeney, Corey Koskie and Keith Ginter will also help make the Dragons one of the leagues' top lineups this year. PITCHING: "Rocket" Roger Clemens will be gunning for a Cy Young award this season, and Carl Pavano and Brad Penny are formidable 2nd & 3rd starters. Rich Harden and Ramon Ortiz help round out a deep rotation. The bullpen gets kind of thing after Danny Kolb and Ray King, but the Dragons will likely be up by multiple runs when the 9th rolls around, so that's OK. OUTLOOK: Some great hitting and some solid starting pitching has Avila thinking post-season this year. 1. Milwaukee Pilots (Last Year - 110-52, 1st in division, 2003 CDBL Champs) HITTING: The Pilots didn't need homers on their way to a top 4 offense last year, and will try again this year. Ichiro Suzuki and Mark Loretta do everything but hit the long ball. Carl Crawford hits for average and can swipe a base or 2. Cesar Izturis also helps make the Pilots one of the faster teams in the league. Vernon Wells and Jorge Posada add to the lineup. PITCHING: Doug Davis, Livan Hernandez, and Kelvim Escobar shore up the top of the rotation and can match up with any other team in the division. The other 2 rotation spots - perhaps not. Milwaukee did acquire closer supreme Eric Gagne in the off-season, but the bullpen gets mighty average after that. OUTLOOK: Championship banners fly forever. Milwaukee is still in it, but their road back to the world series will be more difficult this year. 4. Alphaville Cautions (Last Year - 102-60, 3rd in division) HITTING: Aaron Rowand! Geoff Jenkins! Randy Winn! The names don't jump out at you but the Cautions have enough decent batters to score some runs. Just don't expect them to make the all-star team. They will also rely on a lot of platoon situations, where they should get above average production from the likes of JT Snow and Frank Menechino. PITCHING: Kerry Wood fights through injuries this year, and the rest of the pitching staff is average. Braden Looper could get plenty of save opportunities this year, but the rest of the bullpen can also be described as "average". OUTLOOK: Not too bad, not too good, the Cautions should finish the season right in the middle. 5. Bangor Blue Lobsters (Last Year - 78-84, 6th in division) HITTING: Bangor features a lot of marquee names like Sammy Sosa and Phil Nevin. Victor Martinez should have a good year at catcher and Scott Podseknik is a contender for the stolen base crown. Lots of 1B/OF types on the roster, it may take a bit of juggling to find at bats for them all. PITCHING: Tim Hudson is an ace pitcher that any team could build around. Mark Mulder and Barry Zito add a veteran presence to the rotation which is about league average. Eddie Guardado is the leading candidate for closer, and the Blue Lobsters have a bevy of relievers to throw at opposing hitters in the later innings. OUTLOOK: The Blue Lobsters will likely duel the Cautions for who finishes in the middle more this season. 6. Dedham Destroyers (Last Year - 106-56, 2nd in division) HITTING: Todd Helton continues his elite play, and Jason Bay is starting to come into his own. Brian Giles is another bright spot, and Torii Hunter can contribute. After Mike Piazza, the rest of the lineup gets real bad real fast. PITCHING: The Destroyers cornered the market on mediocre starters, and their team ERA will likely show that. Steven Kline and Damasco Marte lead a bullpen that would be serviceable if the pitching or starters were better, but there likely won't be many save opportunities in Dedham this season. OUTLOOK: Dedham made a go at it in 2003, and in 2004 it will be time for them to pay the bill.